Let's talk about why the probability of interest rate hikes has reached 90%, shouldn't the market fall? Why are you still pulling it up. Let's start with the conclusion: I don't think it's currently a 'runaway inflation trade', but rather a very typical 'hawkish front-end+long-term temporary easing+oil price decline'. 1. CPI: Slightly biased towards eagle, not explosive The CPI data is basically in line with expectations, and the real reason for the market to raise interest rate expectations again in the data is that the core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%>0.2. 2. Let's take a look at the US Treasury data US2Y ≈ 4.596% ↑ US10Y ≈ 4.922% ↓ DXY ≈ 99.07， Basically not moving At present, 10Y has not exceeded 5%; The short-term yield has risen due to the increased probability of interest rate hikes. For the market, CPI is a bit hot. If Walsh raises interest rates once, the credit of the Federal Reserve will increase, indicating that the Fed is willing to control inflation. Therefore, there is no need to push 10Y above 5% to force the Fed to cut interest rates for the time being. 3. The key to the rise is the decline in oil prices After CL pin 106, it has now returned to 96, and after CPI news, crude oil is still on a downward trend. That's also why 10Y has fallen a bit, because the drop in crude oil has led to a decrease in inflationary pressure. 4: Summary: After CPI, the stock market did not fall and BTC did not fall. The key is that 10Y has not exceeded 5% and Oil is falling, which means the market believes that a single interest rate hike is not enough to destroy risky assets at present. For the market, I think the key now is: I can accept the interest rate hike. The Fed Eagle is a good thing and represents independence. But what I'm afraid of is that raising interest rates won't be effective, which means Oil+10Y will lose control.