After the market recedes: Top, Bottom, or Golden Pit? What do crypto KOLs think of the future market On September 11th, the macro once again overshadowed the narrative. PPI is trending higher, oil prices have surpassed 100, Bitcoin has fallen below $77000, and on chain liquidity has withdrawn simultaneously. Although BTC's monthly line of nearly 25% in August is still high, it has been stagnant at 82000 and unable to rise. Tonight's CPI, next week's FOMC, the macro market is already in turmoil, while the crypto market itself still has the Clarity bill pending. The question is straightforward: is the current market a healthy rebound after the cycle has turned over, a golden pit created by the narrative of interest rate hikes, or a fish tail that has not yet finished after the climax? The editor has sorted out representative KOL viewpoints in recent times according to three schools of thought ⬇️ The bulls: The trend is still there, and the pullback is pricing the belief one ⃣ Tom Lee @ fundstrat | BitMine Chairman | XHunt Global Ranking: 188 Judgment: The more afraid the market is of a 'red September', the more likely it is to experience a reverse trend; Encryption is the strongest asset in FOMO by the end of the year. Viewpoint: The consensus has already taken into account interest rate hikes, AI headwinds, and seasonality, and this crowded pessimism itself is a reverse signal. On September 15-16, there was a directional switch for the discussion; If the Federal Reserve remains inactive, the stock market and cryptocurrency may both strengthen together. In the history of encryption, it is about one month ahead of S&P. two ⃣ Yi Lihua @ Jackyi_1d | Founder of Liquid Capital | XHunt Global Ranking: 1615 Judgment: The bull market trend has already begun, and this round is an upward right tilt adjustment, not a reversal; At least until 2028. Viewpoint: BTC support is expected to range from 75500 to 76300, with a near end pressure of 82300 and an upper edge pressure of 86000; Only when the strength cannot break through 86000, can we talk about the pullback in this period. Robinhood Chain ZEC、 The trading token has experienced a partial bull market, which is believed to be similar to the 'eve of the 2020 bull market frenzy'. In this round, BTC/ETH has more than tripled, with ETH showing greater elasticity than BTC. three ⃣ Hangying Capital @ thankUcrypto | Top Trader | XHunt Global Ranking: 1643 Judgment: Da Bing has been watching too much for a long time; This round is still trading within the bull market framework, with positions decreasing and targets changing. Viewpoint: Position speaking. Kao Ying stated that his leverage has decreased: BTC is about 5x, ETH is about 3x, HYPE is about 2x, and the knockoff is not more than 0.5x. His goal is to fill the entire round and not end it so quickly. ⚖️ Golden Pit Faction: Short term bearish, long-term bullish one ⃣ Bruce J @ BTCBruce1 | XHunt Global Ranking: 1840 Judgment: Adding 25bp in September is almost certain; Adding 50bp is actually picking up leaks. Viewpoint: A rate hike in September is the benchmark scenario, and adding 50 basis points is not impossible. Add 50bp at once, panic will finish first, that part is the leak detection. If we only add 25bp, there is a high probability that we will add it again by the end of October, and it will be up and down before the end of the year. Short term interest rates are preferred, while the medium-term is more optimistic after the midterm elections. two ⃣ TraderS | Unscrupulous Taoist @ TraderS18 | XHunt Global Ranking: 4188 Judgment: PPI and double over 100 oil prices have already given CPI a clear answer; September can be avoided, and October cannot be avoided either. Viewpoint: The market has already fully priced in the 'rate hike before October', it is meaningless to guess if there is a soft hand. Trading only focuses on oil prices - oil prices are the ultimate demon king of all risky assets. Oil prices rise, and other assets have to be suppressed. Buy points and wait for "consecutive interest rate hikes, twice within the year" to smash the golden pit. three ⃣ Shu fen @ shufen46250836 | XHunt Global Ranking: 8210 Judgment: It is determined that there will be two interest rate hikes within the year, with a magnitude of 50bp; the first interest rate hike is not the end of the market. Viewpoint: The first interest rate hike does not mean the end of the trend, continuous interest rate hikes will truly harm risk assets. $100 oil price is not the norm; After oil prices fall and inflation returns to the mean, policies still need to return to interest rate cuts. If there is a drastic adjustment due to a rate hike in September, it will be a golden pit. Bearer: The rebound is a distribution, and the bottom is not over yet one ⃣ Garrett Jin @ GarrettBullish | Agent of "10.11 Insider Whale" | XHunt Global Ranking: 2558 Judgment: 82500 yuan has not passed, and the oscillation may not even be halfway through; The probability of reaching 60000 at the end of the cycle is still about 70%. Viewpoint: Last week's breakthrough of 82300 yuan was a failure, and spot buying cannot bear the selling pressure above 82000 yuan. Unable to hold on, first look at 76000 to 77000, then 74000 to 75000, and the key demand is between 72000 and 72500. At the end of the year, the macro level can be more constructive, and short-term risks must be reduced - the rising trend is crowded trading, not completed trend pricing. two ⃣ Josie Lin @ jocyiosg | IOSG Founding Partner XHunt Global Ranking: 3732 Judgment: The four-year cycle once again overwhelms all complex narratives, and the bottom window may still be in October. Viewpoint: No matter how favorable the macro situation is, it has not stopped the bear market that will peak in October 2025. Scenario 1: Bottom out around 45000 to 60000 at the end of October this year. Scenario 2: By the first to second quarter of 2027, we expect to see 40000 to 55000. August is more like a liquidity pulse in a bear market. three ⃣ Bitjin @ roger73005305 | XHunt Global Ranking: 7706 Judgment: Above 80000 is the main distribution, currently it is a false bottom; I really have to wait until November to January next year. Viewpoint: This rebound is a false bottom, and the shape will be a ground bottom (W or triple bottom), not a needle. Near September 5th, there was a marked rebound high point, followed by market makers continuously withdrawing liquidity without any replenishment. After the market crash on September 10th, the bearish energy was much stronger than the bullish energy, and BTC funds still mainly flowed out. Trading discipline: Copy only in Q4 or at the end of the year, do not chase now. ⭐ Summary: Putting these three factions back into the same pricing table, a more accurate judgment is that the cryptocurrency market has entered a consolidation stage, and the subsequent market urgently needs macro data to stimulate liquidity in order to choose the next direction of the market. Just like the BTC 4h channel analyzed by @ CryptoPainter this morning ⬇️ Whether the market is going up or down ultimately depends on the resonance between price and premium.