Recently, everyone may have been confused: why is BTC repeatedly being bounced back when it reaches around 82000? Isn't it said that the bear market has ended and the bull market has started? Why are you still so restless and shaking? Today, I will discuss this matter from several perspectives, so that everyone can see clearly the market truth, trend status, and short to medium term trend direction reflected behind the quantitative energy and on chain data. Part One: Quantitative Energy, Who is Leading First, let's talk about the strength and weakness of the volume in the past two weeks. If you look at the volatility curve of long and short positions, you will find a clear trend: the long positions are gradually weakening, while the short positions are gradually increasing. It's not that the bulls are running out of money, it's that their push up is getting weaker and weaker each time. The price has surged to around 82000 yuan, but the quantity cannot keep up; When it falls back to around 78000, you can actually see some acceptance. This is a typical signal of multi head exhaustion. The signal that can be given by quantity is that bulls are declining and bears are accumulating strength. This is not a breakthrough in the expected quantitative structure. In addition, if we look at the daily price trend and trading volume, there is currently a situation of volume price deviation, which is a downward adjustment signal at the daily level. Part 2: Who is buying and who is selling The buying side is mainly driven by two forces: One is ETF institutions. In the past one to two weeks, there has been a sustained net inflow, with BlackRock IBIT alone absorbing a significant amount. Big funds are coming in, that's true. However, in just two days, ETF spot institutions sold BTC in small quantities again. Wallgrass institutions are like this, they enter with their left hand and exit with their right hand, adapting to the situation! The second is the giant whale. Large wallet addresses are also scanning during price corrections. At the end of August to early September, Giant Whale took advantage of the pullback and bought approximately 6765 BTC. Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley are also continuing to increase their holdings. It is a fact that these large funds did not run away. But the selling side has greater power. Three forces are shipping BTC: The first share is held by long-term holders. On chain data shows that as BTC approaches $80000, the selling activity of long-term holders has significantly increased. Holders who hold positions for 6 to 18 months are the most active, having transferred over 297000 BTC to the exchange. What does it mean? These people have very low costs, 80000 is already a good selling price for them, they are selling. The second group is miners. Miners need to pay for electricity and operating costs, and when prices rise to around 80000, they will also take the opportunity to sell to improve cash flow. The third stock is short-term profit taking and retail investors. People who bought around 75000 or 78000 yuan have already made a profit when it rises to over 80000 yuan, so they choose to settle for safety. The result is that ETFs and whales are buying, but long-term holders, miners, short-term profit traders, and retail investors are selling at the same time. Whose quantity is large? Long term holders transferred nearly 300000 BTC to the exchange within a month. When buying and selling offset each other, the price gets stuck here. Part 3: Spatial Structure. Why is the area around 82000 special Let me give you a weekly Fibonacci retracement chart: the 0-axis is 126800 and the 1-axis is 15500. The strong gravitational region of 0.382 corresponds exactly to the vicinity of 82000. Please see the figure below Fibonacci's 0.382 is a natural strong gravitational region with significant resistance. The price has risen to this point, just like climbing a mountain to a steep slope, you have to use much more force than before to flip over. Meanwhile, the distribution of chips on the chain also confirms this point. The range of 80000 to 82000 has accumulated a large number of chips. The price point of 80000 itself concentrates approximately 5% of BTC supply, making it the most chip intensive position on any single price point in the entire market. In addition, the holding cost of ETFs also falls within this range, which means that when the price returns here, a large number of people have just released their funds and have a strong impulse to "recoup their capital". So every time the price hits around 82000, it's not that the bulls are not working hard, but that the selling volume at this position is too heavy. The above is a technical analysis, let's take a look at macro factors: the US CPI data for August on Friday and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on September 16th. From the current international oil prices rising to $100 and other data, the CPI data is a potential bearish trend, with the probability of interest rate hikes increasing to 60%. If the CPI data released on Friday exceeds expectations, the probability of interest rate hikes will increase, and Bitcoin prices may fall again. If the core CPI meets expectations month on month, the probability of interest rate hikes will still remain at around 60%. The price of Bitcoin may fluctuate slightly and cannot fall, but it cannot rise either. It takes time to digest these pressures and unfavorable factors. In addition to the visible buying and selling mentioned above, there is also an invisible force suppressing the price of Bitcoin, That is the "pad" effect of option market makers, which welds the price around 82000. Because around 82000 is the intensive exercise price of a large number of call options. Market makers have a large amount of hedging positions in order to control risks. When the price approaches 82000, their automated program will perform hedging operations, creating mechanical selling pressure. The closer the price is to around 82000, the greater the selling pressure. The price of Bitcoin is not that it doesn't want to break through, but every time it wants to break through, there are mechanical selling orders that automatically surge out to suppress the price. What will be the price trend of Bitcoin in the future Focus on two pieces of data: (1) Friday's CPI data for August in the United States; (2) The results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16th. Focus on two signals: (1) Breaking through and stabilizing at 82000 in volume → The supply wall above is being eaten up, and the direction is upward; (2) The decrease in volume below 77000 indicates the need for a pullback to accumulate strength before looking at the support range of 75000 to 76000. Before these two data, policies, and signals are released, it is highly likely that they will continue to fluctuate around 76000-80000. Don't worry, wait for the market to choose its own direction.