degentrading
degentrading|Sep 10, 2026 05:46
Pre Market Thoughts - 10 Sep 26 Markets took a leg down after Bessent underwhelmed with his bond buybacks. SPX felt it acutely with the index convulsing. Energy was the best performing sector while Consumer Discretionary was the worst. Likewise the mood carried over to today's asia trading with NKY and KOSPI slightly worse for the wear. The move up in neoclouds also saw some amount of retracement while memory showed some relative strength. SKHY performed extremely well, hitting ATHs (a function of it only being listed in July). The SKHY premium remains strong - for reasons that i listed out previously - supply constrained and unlikely issuance while there are funds who can only buy US listed stocks. In KR, $00660 remains firm buoyed by corporate buybacks providing support everyday. From prime brokerage data, funds remain underexposed to the market. US fundamental L/S ratio increased 0.5% to 1.605 (4th percentile on 1yr) - this is the lowest since Liberation day. On friday, some people noted that SALP might be back - we saw some prints in large Flex calls in the same AI names of the summer. 315M of premium was spent to accumulate 1.1B of delta. This has created some of the spot up, vol up dynamic in single names that has helped to offset the vega supply from the structured notes flow (Remember when i was flagging out how IVs were below realised/realising vols). In crypto, i made the call to be cautious on 7 Sep - for majors to be soggy and a potential flash crash in alts because CEX liquidity was getting quite dire. Since then BTC has traded weak while a few of the "strong alts" that were since leading are down more than 30%. On the trenches - " Your RH trench tokens? Some will survive, some wont. Which ones will? Those with some semblance of a product, cash flows. " This will sound unpleasant, but many unrealised PnLs will stay unrealised and go to zero. There is not enough cash and liquidity in the market to realise those. Hence game theory will spark a race to the exit which is why you see huge down moves across the trench tokens. Thin liquidity meets motivated sellers. The play here is to start observing which ones are getting to value zones with good risk reward and to buy them. Remember - you derisk so that you can add risk back when everyone is suffering. Good luck!(degentrading)
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