After HYPE broke a new high, everyone started shouting $200 A few days ago, HYPE hit a new historical high, and before we could talk, the price had already returned to above $85 After breaking through a new historical high, there are no past lock ups to refer to, and the market can only find the next price direction through integer thresholds, leverage positions, and liquidation distributions From the current liquidation structure, HYPE is temporarily sandwiched between $79 and $90. If the price continues to rise by 5% from $85.70, it will reach approximately $89.99, corresponding to a short liquidation of approximately $42.7 million. Rising 10% to $94.27, with accumulated short liquidation of approximately $49.8 million; Up 15% to $98.56, totaling approximately $57.1 million That is to say, $90 is not only an integer level, but also the first obvious bearish pressure zone above Once HYPE regains its footing at $90, the short liquidation between $94 and $99 may continue to fuel the price, and the market will naturally begin discussing $100 But the structure below is not as safe as it appears, dropping 5% from the current price to $81.42, only corresponding to a long liquidation of about $785000. This indicates that the leverage below has not been dense recently, but once it continues to fall below $80, the structure will quickly change The current largest near end liquidity accumulation area is located near $79.19, approximately 7.6% from the current price, corresponding to a potential liquidation of approximately $31.3 million. Falling 10% to $77.13, with accumulated long liquidation of approximately $71.5 million; Decreased by 15% to $72.85, with a cumulative total of approximately $113.4 million More precisely, there is a bearish fuel between $85 and $90, but below $79 there is a larger bullish clearing zone Breaking through $90, the market will continue to look at $94 to $99. If $79 is lost, the price may move towards $77 to $73 in search of liquidity through liquidation After reading the short term, why is the market starting to shout $200 Community members attempt to use Hyperliquid's revenue to price HYPE HYPE is not a completely revenue unsupported token: transaction fees for Hyperliquid, Assistance Fund buybacks, AQA v2 reserve returns, HyperEVM Gas, and priority fees may all affect HYPE demand or supply through different pathways But directly calculating $200 from current income still incorporates multiple assumptions in between The first assumption is that Hyperliquid will conduct a second airdrop It is expected that the next round of airdrops may account for 6% to 8% of the total supply, corresponding to a value of approximately 6 billion to 8 billion US dollars based on a HYPE price of 100 US dollars. Assuming that the recipient of the airdrop will not sell directly, but will use a portion of HYPE as collateral to lend out approximately $1 billion to $2 billion in USDC. This may push the USDC scale in Hyperliquid to around $10 billion Based on an estimated AQA yield of approximately 3.1%, $10 billion USDC can generate approximately $310 million in annual revenue But currently, the second airdrop has not been officially confirmed, and the proportion of 6% to 8% is only hypothetical The second assumption is that after external platforms such as Kraken and Coinbase are integrated, the USDC scale in Hyperliquid may grow to $15 billion to $20 billion If USDC really reaches $20 billion, based on the current interest rate static calculation, the annualized reserve return is about $628 million. But this still depends on whether the access is implemented, whether users truly migrate, and whether short-term interest rates can be maintained The third assumption is that external entry will double the Hyperliquid transaction volume The current benchmark daily trading volume is about 8 billion US dollars, including perpetual contracts of about 7.7 billion US dollars and spot contracts of about 320 million US dollars. If the trading volume doubles and the actual transaction fee remains unchanged, the transaction fee income may increase from the current estimated around $700 million to $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion annually Combined with AQA v2, HIP-4, and priority fees, an annual revenue of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion is an optimistic scenario, therefore it is believed that HYPE can reach $200 in the coming months Although the second airdrop, mortgage loan, CEX access, USDC growth, and doubling of trading volume are currently all assumptions included But don't forget, the last time we talked about HYPE breaking new highs, it seemed like it was not long ago You're not bullish enough