September is a crucial month for the market, and the competition around 80000 yuan is extremely important! My judgment is that September is more likely to fluctuate first and then choose a direction, with the main range looking at $74000-85000. OKX Bitcoin: Native quickly rebounded from $57800 to $80000, once again approaching its May high. The two blue circles in the chart correspond to the same chip intensive area, but this time we cannot simply copy the previous trend. On September 4th, the net inflow of spot ETFs was approximately $175 million, with a cumulative inflow of nearly $987 million over the past five trading days. Institutional buying is still ongoing and does not support the judgment that "there is no incremental capital left in the market". However, the continuous inflow of ETFs and BTC's inability to stabilize at $82000 also indicate that there is significant selling activity above. We want to break free from the previous lock up, and the bottom chips are also cashing in profits. We are switching hands again around $80000. The funding rate remains moderate, the amount of open interest has fallen, and the leverage squeeze has eased. However, the short-term driving force for short selling is also weakening, and it will depend on spot trading to continue the relay. The biggest variable in September is still macro, with strong employment data pushing up expectations of interest rate hikes, oil prices, inflationary pressures, and US bond yields also rising. BTC is currently struggling to shake off the influence of the Nasdaq and global liquidity. The CPI on September 11th, as well as the interest rate meeting on September 15th and 16th, will determine how to proceed in the second half of this month. Next, we will only look at a few positions: Stand firm at $82000, first look at $85000, break through $85000 in volume, and then look at $88000-92000 Breaking below $76000, retraced to $72000-74000, lost to $70000 on the weekly chart, and the rebound structure clearly weakened. Looking below at $65000-68000 If it closes at $76000-82000 at the end of the month, it still belongs to high volatility; Standing at $85000, the trend further strengthens; If it falls below $70000, we need to prevent the establishment of a second highest point. In September, there is no need to rush to chase the bulls, nor is there a need to bet on a crash in advance. First, see if the ETF can continue to buy, and then see if the selling orders around $80000 can be digested.