The US stock market is closed on 9/7. Just now, WTI spiked to 93 again but got pushed back down. Let’s continue talking about Bitcoin, ETH, and macro analysis. As mentioned earlier, we’re still in the range-bound movement between 585-81 since the big drop in early February, with high-price positions being swapped for lower-price ones. Actually, after more than half a year, the positions above 90k have mostly been shaken out to around 6-7. Those who wanted to leave have probably left by now, and those who didn’t want to leave are likely still holding on. Once the macro and news-driven bearish expectations are fully cleared out and the bullish expectations materialize, we should be able to break out of the 585-81 range. The influencing logic: Geopolitical risks → Oil price fluctuations → Inflation expectation pressures → Interest rate changes → Risk market volatility. Currently, CME’s September rate hike expectation is still around 58%. This week, leading up to the 9/17 FOMC meeting, will be critical. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, risk markets will definitely feel the pressure. Personally, I think the reasons for a September rate hike aren’t very strong, and the current expectation is for rates to remain unchanged. If there’s no rate hike, it’ll feel like we’ve passed a tough hurdle. But that doesn’t mean October or December will be smooth sailing, so we still need to watch geopolitical factors and oil prices. My personal best-case scenario is no rate hike in September, followed by some hype around rate cut expectations in October or December, or even an actual rate cut. At that point, both Bitcoin and US stocks would get a boost—not just in sentiment but also in terms of liquidity. The worst-case scenario would be a rate hike in September, or even the start of a sustained rate hike cycle. In that case, no one would be spared. That said, I personally think the probability of this is still quite low. If there’s no rate hike in September, as long as geopolitical factors don’t push oil prices higher and cause inflation to spike, the noise around future rate hike expectations should quiet down a bit. Even if there is a rate hike in September, as long as it doesn’t kick off a sustained rate hike cycle, the market will quickly price it in and move on, treating it as a short-term hike. The market would bounce back to life soon after. So, from now until 9/17, let’s keep an eye on how the market evolves. Starting tomorrow, the US stock market will reopen. DYOR