Abnormal behavior during the rally: Whales aren't taking the chance to sell off —— Writing long posts on weekends... not sure if you guys even want to read them. Honestly, I wanted to keep it short, but if it's too short, it won't make sense. Sigh... since it's already written, might as well post it. The 'BTC On-Chain Accumulation Trend Score' measures the behavior of whales on-chain over the past 30 days—whether they're net accumulating or net distributing. The calculation has two layers: first, by scale—the larger the scale, the higher the weight (excluding miners and exchanges); then, by net balance changes—higher scores for accumulation, lower scores for distribution. After weighting both, it assigns a score between '0~1.' So, its weighting is heavily skewed toward whales. Close to 1 (black) can basically be interpreted as entities holding thousands or tens of thousands of coins accumulating. Close to 0 (yellow) indicates two possibilities: whales are distributing, or whales are staying put. Now that we understand the algorithm logic, let's compare the data: In January this year, when BTC surged to $97k, and in May when it hit $82k, both were yellow—indicating that while the price was rebounding, whales were net distributing. This is the standard structure of a bear market rally. Prices are pushed up by short covering and short-term funds, while whales take the opportunity to sell off. Without strong support, the rally ends. But this time, the move from $60k to $80k is black—indicating that whales have been net buying over the past 30 days. Among the three rallies, this is the first time we've seen a combination of price increases alongside whale accumulation. Of course, whale accumulation doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom or that a trend reversal is guaranteed. But at the very least, it shows that this particular rally is structurally healthy. Typically, only during the main bullish wave of a bull market do we see similar structures—price increases + simultaneous whale accumulation. The bottom of the last bear market didn't have this structure. After the FTX collapse in November 2022, the $16k range showed dark colors, but during the January 2023 rally, it turned yellow. This means whales were buying at the bottom but cashing out profits or at least stopping accumulation during the rally. So why did prices rise in January? It was likely driven by three forces: derivative short covering, a shift in macroeconomic expectations, and amplified price elasticity due to liquidity drying up after the FTX collapse. The accumulation behavior of smaller funds isn't reflected in this chart. By comparing these periods, we can see that January 2023 and August 2026 are fundamentally different. While the price paths look similar, the on-chain capital structures are not. One last note: Glassnode placing this data under Tier 2 access makes sense. On its own, it can't predict price movements, but it can help assess the health of a rally. This is very helpful for understanding trend formation and boosting confidence.