Without the Iran War, the S&P 500 could be at 9,000+. The S&P 500 has added +$700 billion in market cap today even as Brent crude oil prices near $100/barrel. This is arguably the most resilient market in history. The S&P 500 is now less than 1% away from a record high despite inflation nearing 4%, gas prices back on the rise, and the Fed expected to HIKE rates. Just imagine where the S&P 500 would be if the Iran War ended, oil prices came back down, and rate cuts returned. Earnings growth just over the last 6 months of the Iran War has been historic, with the S&P 500 posting +52% blended earnings growth in Q2 2026. This marks the highest growth rate since Q2 2021, a period where the global economy was emerging from a historic lockdown and the US government handed out $4 trillion in stimulus. In other words, we are now seeing growth on-par with $4+ trillion in stimulus and a global economy that restarted from an effective halt. The reality is that the AI narrative is even stronger than most people realize, the earnings growth is there to support it, and inflation has been above 2% for 60 consecutive months. Own assets or be left behind.(The Kobeissi Letter)