Fundstrat Tom Lee's latest viewpoint: September may not necessarily fall, the real downside risk may be in October In this interview with Fundstrat, Tom Lee mainly updated his judgment on the September US stock market, potential correction points, Crypto Q4 market, and the macro fundamentals of the United States. 1、 September US stock market: The market is too scared, but there may be an upward surprise instead Previously, the market was generally concerned that September would become a month of concentrated risk release, including seasonal weakness, uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies, crowded AI trading, and high market levels, which led many investors to expect a pullback of nearly 10%. But Tom Lee now believes that precisely because the market's concerns about September are already very strong, there may be an Upside Surprise, where the actual trend is stronger than market expectations. The next crucial steps are non farm payroll, CPI, and the Federal Reserve meeting in mid September. 2、 The callback risk may be postponed from September to October Tom Lee does not believe that the market will not adjust, he thinks that the timing of the adjustment may be postponed. If the market continues to strengthen in September, the overall market may even break through new highs first, such as the S&P pushing towards 8000 points or above, and then experiencing a rebound in October. The potential callback area he provided is approximately between 7300-7400. Coming down from a high point may be visually frightening and even reignite discussions about whether a bear market is coming, but if corporate profits and economic fundamentals do not significantly deteriorate, this decline is still a normal deleveraging in a bull market. In addition, after the midterm elections, the history of the US stock market will enter a relatively stronger phase again. 3、 Crypto: The recent rise may only be the first wave, Q4 is the focus Tom Lee is very optimistic about Crypto, believing that the recent rise in assets such as BTC and ETH may only be the first leg up, the first period of upward trend. There are several important catalysts in Q4. Firstly, Crypto has become one of the strongest performing macro assets in Q3, which may attract more institutions to reallocate assets in September and the fourth quarter. Secondly, tokenization and Agentic AI are bringing a new long-term narrative to the on chain ecosystem. Meanwhile, Crypto has undergone multiple rounds of deleveraging in the early stages, and currently the overall position and chip structure are relatively clean. Once funds flow back in, the upward elasticity will be very large. The four-year cycle will also enter a critical time window in the future, and funds such as those from South Korea that previously shifted from Crypto to AI are beginning to show signs of re flowing. The biggest potential catalyst on the policy side is the CLARITY ACT. If there is significant progress in the bill within the year, Tom Lee believes that both BTC and ETH may see greater upward potential in Q4, and BTC is likely to challenge the six figures again. 4、 Bottom line support for US stocks: Profits are still improving The most important reason why Tom Lee is bullish on US stocks, besides liquidity or expectations of interest rate cuts, is that corporate profits are still very strong. At present, the endogenous profit growth rate of S&P enterprises is close to 20%, and the long-term EPS forecast is constantly being raised. As long as profits continue to grow, even if the index valuation is not low, it can gradually digest the valuation through EPS growth, which is also an important basis for him to believe that S&P has the opportunity to push towards 8200 points or above by the end of the year. 5、 US economy: 3%+GDP does not necessarily mean inflation is out of control Tom Lee believes that the US economy may now be entering a phase of stronger structural growth. The return of manufacturing, capital expenditures on AI and data centers, energy infrastructure construction, and new investment cycles all have the potential to maintain the potential growth level of US real GDP above 3%. The key is that if the wage growth rate can remain relatively stable, then economic strength does not necessarily mean that inflation will once again spiral out of control. This means that in the future, there may be a unique combination of strong economic growth, continued growth in corporate profits, and inflation not getting out of control again in the market. If this scenario holds true, then the bull market foundation of the US stock market has not been disrupted.