Stretched Gold Faces Fed Tightening Headwinds Central bank tightening and sustained gold-price appreciation from roughly an 80% premium to its 60-month moving average are rare. My graphic highlights how stretched the metal is now vs. in 4Q21, the last time fed funds futures in one year (FF13-FF1) dropped to the Aug. 28 level of about 55 bps of tightening. Gold bottomed a year later in 4Q22, near $1,600 an ounce and its 60-month mean. The metal's nadir at the end of 2022 was accompanied by its 260-day volatility dropping to about 0.62x vs. the S&P 500's (SPX) and the gold-to-SPX 100-day correlation surging to 0.59 -- the highest in our database since 1974. Today, gold is trading about 2.2x the volatility of SPX, while the gold-to-SPX 100-day correlation is near historical highs at roughly 0.53. My take is that gold's 2026 peak risks appear akin to 1980 and 2011. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tkbii8kgzaip {BI COMD} #gold #federalreserve @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)