[The U.S. Treasury Can Temporarily Suppress Long-Term Yields, But Struggles to Counter the Market in the Long Run] According to a report by Jinse Finance, macroeconomic forecasting consultancy TS Lombard believes that if the U.S. Treasury significantly increases short-term debt issuance while repurchasing long-term debt, it can indeed temporarily suppress long-term yields and narrow the 30-year to 10-year yield spread. However, this effect is more short-term in nature. Currently, the long-term debt repurchase frequency promoted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is close to three times per month, with the maximum size per repurchase doubled to $4 billion. This remains relatively small compared to the entire U.S. Treasury market. Even if further measures are taken, such as a similar maturity structure adjustment to Operation Twist (where the central bank or Treasury sells short-term debt and buys long-term debt), the effects may quickly diminish. Looking back at the 2011-2012 Operation Twist, long-term yields and the curve initially declined significantly after the policy was introduced, but fundamentals regained dominance within a few months, and the impact of the second round of operations was even weaker. Overall, the Treasury has tools and can create temporary supply-demand shifts, but it cannot fundamentally alter long-term term premiums. Global capital flows and macroeconomic fundamentals will ultimately reestablish equilibrium. If investors believe that long-term bonds do not adequately compensate for inflation risks or that bonds lose value as a hedge against equities, the demand generated by Treasury repurchases will eventually be offset by reduced allocations from private investors. (Jin10 Data APP)