The market is waiting for one answer. What will Kevin Warsh say at Jackson Hole today? Here’s our view: Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech comes as markets remain uncertain about his approach to interest rates, largely because he has avoided providing clear forward guidance since taking the Fed chair. The biggest thing to watch is his reaction function: what level of inflation, growth and financial conditions would make him cut or raise rates. Treasury yields will also be closely watched. With Scott Bessent expanding long-dated Treasury buybacks, markets will be looking for any indication of how Warsh views rising long-term borrowing costs and the Fed’s role in the bond market. Warsh could also outline his five “first principles” task forces examining inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, technology and Fed communications. In our view, the biggest market-moving outcome would be clear forward guidance. A vague or dovish speech could push long-term Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year potentially testing 5.5%+.(Coin Bureau)