Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Aug 17, 2026 07:26
Things to know before Monday's opening: The market continues to be bullish, but pay attention to OPEX and the situation in the Middle East this week Let's start with the conclusion: my view on the overall market is still biased towards retracement. The Higher High+Higher Low structure of SPY and QQQ has not been disrupted, and the market is still in a positive Gamma environment, with IWM reaching a historic high first. Although the index slightly fell last Friday, there was a clear excess of option funds in the late trading session, with Call Buying+Put Selling continuing to dominate. Therefore, for now, I still understand this as a high-level Bullish Consolidation. 1. SPY and QQ: Gamma continues to be biased, watch 7800 first and then 7900 SPY showed a clear positive Net Flow at the end of last Friday, with funds continuing to concentrate towards Strike 7800 and above. The overall GEX height in the 7750-7900 range is slightly positive. If 7800 can be further consolidated, there is still room for expansion towards 7900 in the future. Technically speaking, in the short term, SPY will first look at 775 support, break through 780 above, and then look at 785. Next week's Expected Move is approximately 767.94-784.74. If there is a deeper wash, 760-767 is the Demand Zone where I really want to find Look Below and Fail. The logic of QQ is similar, 726 is the watershed between long and short positions. Keep watching 735-743. If it falls below and cannot quickly recover, it will retest the daily EMA 20 713. Next week's Expected Move is approximately 718.65-743.78. 2. IWM hits a historic high, market width continues to improve IWM has taken the lead in breaking historical highs. As long as 298-300 remains unbroken, there will be a strong consolidation around 305-306, and we will continue to look at 310 in the future. And now it's not just Mega Cap Tech that's pulling the index. Semiconductor, biotechnology, finance, utilities, healthcare, and other sectors are all involved, with approximately 70% of the S&P 500 and 65% of the Nasdaq 100 constituents operating above their 50 day moving averages,. So currently it's a Broad based Rally, not relying on a few tech giants to prop up the index. 3. VIX falls below 15: Positive news for slow bull market, but need to guard against short-term volatility recovery The lowest VIX has reached around 14.25, and a large amount of negative Gamma around 14-15 continues to suppress volatility, which is also the reason why the index has been experiencing shallow and gradual upward corrections recently. But VIX has already entered an extremely low level, so it's no surprise to see a technical rebound towards 17 in the coming weeks. 4. AMD: Significant Momentum Shift on Friday AMD rose about 6.5% against the trend on Friday, breaking through the dense moving average near 500 while maintaining its Higher Low structure. There is also a significant positive Delta Flow on the options side, with 600 Strike GEX beginning to increase. The resistance level that needs to be addressed now is the front high around 530. If we can also break through here and create higher highs, there is a chance to form a reversal structure. 5. The biggest external variables of the week: Meiyi+Hormuz The arrangement for the cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran will expire on August 17th, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. The United States has also warned that it may introduce further economic measures against Iran. If the situation does not continue to deteriorate, the market is likely to continue treating it as background noise. But if Oil suddenly accelerates its breakthrough, it is necessary to pay attention to the simultaneous increase in yield and VIX, which will create short-term pressure on Growth/Tech. 6. NVDA/AI Infrastructure: Focus on Financing Risks Another news to keep an eye on over the weekend is NVDA's potential financial support for the OpenAI Ohio data center project, which has dropped from the previously discussed maximum of 250B to below 120B. Last week's low trading volume is not a reason for short selling Recently, the trading volume of the S&P 500 has dropped to a low for the year, but a decrease in volume does not necessarily mean a peak. In a strong trend, a price increase accompanied by a decrease in trading volume means that the selling pressure is very light. Small buying orders can drive up prices. Be careful of signals such as volume stagnation, long-term bearish trend, Lower High/Lower Low, and synchronous deterioration of market width.
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