qinbafrank|Aug 13, 2026 04:43
Last night's release of CPI data for July was in line with expectations, and as we discussed last night, the market trend is relatively stable, with the Nasdaq index slightly rising. The individual stocks and sectors that have performed well are basically sectors with strong fundamentals in recent times.
1. The precise data released by the Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Labor showed a year-on-year CPI of 3.36% and a core CPI of 47%, which was slightly lower than expected. But after publicly announcing the rounding, it meets expectations.
1) The month on month growth rate of core commodities is 0.2%, and the three-month compound growth rate is still relatively low, indicating a continued downward trend in the overall central market; This month's rebound is concentrated in the second-hand car category.
However, it should be noted that AI related consumer goods have returned to an upward trend. The most directly related sub items of AI consumer goods, such as computers and peripheral devices, rebounded from -0.7% month on month to 3.5% in July, reaching a new high year-on-year. Although its weight is not significant and its short-term contribution is limited, AI is different from crude oil. It is not like a one-time impact, but has a wider diffusion ability, especially after enterprises make digital investments. The prices of related service categories have slowly increased, which may be long-term and require special attention. Let's talk about this specifically later
2) In the core services
Housing is still at a low level, while healthcare and car insurance are rebounding. The World Cup effect is indeed declining.
Airline tickets are the biggest threat to core inflation from rising oil prices. The weight of the air ticket sub item exceeded 1%, with a month on month increase of 2.2% in July.
3) Let's talk about oil prices
The impact of oil prices is weaker than expected. Since July, the conflict between the US and Iran has resurfaced, and oil prices have rebounded rapidly, causing concerns in the market that inflation will be raised again. However, looking back at the trend of WTI oil prices, it can be found that the fluctuation range and center in July were basically the same as in June, and there was no substantial increase. CPI data can also reflect this point
2. The significance of this data
1) The CPI is in line with expectations, and the weak core inflation has pulled the market back from the brink of danger, further reducing concerns about interest rate hikes in the market. But it did not give the market strong optimistic expectations.
2) When the US and Iran have not yet reached an agreement on oil prices and have not yet fallen, let the market sentiment slightly improve. But after all, it is not significantly lower than expected, and it is difficult for the market to experience a comprehensive rise. Funds can only prefer assets with strong fundamentals, and assets with weak fundamentals or relying on expected interest rate cuts may not be as strong.
3. What do you think after that?
Recently, let's look at tonight's PPI in July. PPI data is considered upstream of CPI, and if PPI can also weaken, it will further boost and benefit market sentiment.
However, considering that the US and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, if international oil prices continue to fluctuate above 80 in August, it may still affect the inflation level in August.
Before the agreement between the US and Iran is reached, the US stock market is likely to experience a divergent trend, as we discussed last night and went to look at the fundamentals of individual stocks and sectors.
This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'
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