TraderS | 缺德道人|8月 11, 2026 08:20
SpaceX SPCX This week’s short squeeze rally has been pretty solid, without even a moment of hesitation, giving the bulls who’ve been suppressed for two months a chance to breathe.
Yesterday’s close saw a 4.23% gain, ending at $138.74 and maintaining stability. Aside from its own performance, the market speculates that RKLB’s earnings report and the failure of Zhongxing-4B’s launch might have influenced SPCX’s stock price. However, the primary driver is still its own independent logic.
For commercial aerospace, launches themselves are just infrastructure, while the functionality of satellites is the actual business. The entire industry is now turning into mini SpaceXs, and the battle over business models is over—what remains is a race for scale.
The failure of the Long March 7A modification will increase SpaceX’s reliability premium and put the brakes on China’s narrative of weakening SpaceX’s technological uniqueness. This might add fuel to the current short squeeze but won’t play a decisive role. If the final fault investigation confirms that the issue lies with the shared core of the new generation Long March family—the YF-100 engine—then it’s highly likely that the bearish catalyst hanging over SPCX for Q4 will be postponed.
Tomorrow night’s CPI data probably won’t be lower than last month’s, especially since oil prices have been rebounding since early July. However, it’s unlikely to be very high either, as the transmission of oil prices has a lag, and the major impact of the rebound will show up in next month’s data. Judging by today’s gold price movements, the current pullback seems more like profit-taking after a surge and waiting for CPI, rather than proof that the market has completely ruled out rate hike risks. So, U.S. stocks shouldn’t rally too much ahead of the CPI data release.
Back to SPCX’s chart: only if $140 holds firmly will $145 be easier to reach; if $145 breaks out with volume, then we can talk about $150. On the flip side, if SPCX falls back below $135 around the CPI release, this short squeeze rally starting from $105 could shift from a unilateral push to high-level consolidation or even partial profit-taking.
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