Art of Speculation|8月 10, 2026 00:52
Market and option structure
S&P has pulled almost 500 points from the FOMC low point and closed at 7757 last Friday. Now it is basically moving sideways in the high range of 7700-7800.
Although the position is no longer low, the option structure is still biased towards excess for the time being. This week, Gamma is mainly concentrated between 7700-7800, with a noticeable positive bias visible up to around 8000. The same goes for the cash flow here, mainly selling Put and buying Call, indicating that the current market situation is that there are people buying from below, and there are still funds above to continue betting on breakthroughs.
VIX has also fallen below 15. In the past few months, there has been a clear characteristic that every time VIX surges towards around 20, it is quickly sold out. So as long as this low volatility environment is not broken, even if there is a pullback in the market, I think it is more like a high-level oscillation digestion, rather than immediately entering a major decline.
The most obvious trend now is the rotation of sectors (as I mentioned last Monday, CSP, Guang, AXTI, AEHR, and BE all performed well in their financial reports, and software), AI server, New Cloud, Space, Quantum Computing.
Gold has already emerged from the bottom building trend. GLD has returned to the vicinity of the key moving average and also returned to the important position of 400. The Put Selling on the options is very obvious, indicating that the underwriting below is not bad. In the short term, I think it will continue to fluctuate and consolidate around 380-400, and then look for opportunities to move up later.
Although MU has retreated significantly from its high position, it is still mostly working on bottoming out and organizing, and there has not been a situation where the entire AI Infrastructure logic has collapsed. Especially MU, as long as the 800-900 line can still be held, I think this main line is still there. If we start, we need to effectively stand above the daily EMA 21.
Overall approach
I think the most important thing in this market now is whether everything is rising together or in rotation. The AI hardware has increased significantly earlier, and now we are taking a break. The software is starting to take over. Mag 7 remains strong. Gold has also strengthened again. Meanwhile, VIX has also been under pressure.
At this stage, I still lean towards a pullback and go long. In terms of options, if it is a profit oriented approach, SPY, IWM, GLD, etc. can still consider selling put to collect premium, and then using forward put as tail protection. Or, to be more aggressive, you can buy calls from some sectors on September 18th (such as the software sector Now (Gamma concentrated at 120 and showing a positive bias towards the exercise price of 150), CSP (Amazon's best option is to retrace 4 hours to EMA 20 263, Nvidia's retracement to the double bottom neckline of 214, not retrace too much, poor profit and loss ratio), space and quantum computing oversold and rebounded, and New Cloud (CRWV, IREN, NBIS)
At present, I have not seen a clear systematic signal of turning empty. As long as the Gamma support around S&P 7700 remains, VIX has not truly broken through 20, and AI Infrastructure has not broken through on a large scale again, I think the market is more likely to continue to fluctuate at high levels, rotate sectors, and slowly push upwards, without directly starting a deep adjustment.
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