$40 Crude Becoming Normal Due to Bounces Above $100 The US-Iran war and bounce in energy prices may have added fuel to crude oil's pattern of lower highs and lows since the 2008 peak near $147 a barrel. My graphic highlights the shift in the global energy balance on the back of growing US surpluses from what was formerly the largest importer. When WTI peaked near $130 in 2022, the surplus of US and Canadian crude and liquid fuels was near 3 million barrels per day. It's approaching 8 MMBD in 2026, notably due to the 1Q bounce to about $120. What stops this superabundance trend? The word bounce is emphasized because crude has been unable to stay above $100 since 2014. I anticipate an incomplete low-price cure cycle. Since 2008, dips to about $40 have been necessary for bottoms. Growing surpluses in the net-exporter US reduce the relevance of a strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tjah5fvttczw {BI COMD} #crudeoil #energy @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)