qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Aug 08, 2026 03:27
Let me explain my understanding: 1. From a narrative perspective, Circle is at the intersection of three strong narratives: stablecoins, RWA, and agent payments. These three narratives are all verified to be true and not empty narratives. Moreover, there is currently no other target to choose from, and there is a certain scarcity of these three narratives. The scarcity of narrative is the core reason why it can receive attention. 2. Everyone knows that the overall size of stablecoins will reach over trillions, and they are all looking at the level of USDC issuance. Although the competition is fierce, after all, USDC has a circulation of over 70 billion US dollars and is still growing. I can't say for sure if there will be at least a few hundred billion dollars in the future, but there is still room for it. 3. Narrative scarcity and circulation continue to grow at a certain scale, but the team is still capable. So it determines that it has a safety margin. If it oversold, then the cost-effectiveness will also come out. 4. The two points that everyone questions are that Circle's income mainly comes from US dollar reserve income, and at the same time, more than half of its income needs to be distributed. In fact, everyone has exaggerated this concern: the current revenue mainly comes from reserve income, and in the future, it actually depends on how fast its CPN revenue growth rate will be. It's not a problem to allocate more than half of the US dollar reserves, just spend money to exchange for the market. There is another point here. Many people do not know that the earliest issuer of USDC was a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle (each holding 50% equity), and USDC was basically supported by Coinbase from 2019 to 2023. In order to facilitate the listing and business expansion of Circle, Coinbase transferred the equity of the USDC issuer to Circle, with only the right to profit. For growth companies, the core is growth, which is the competitive position in the industry. So the core of Circle is the growth of USDC issuance and whether other revenue in payment, CPN, and other areas can be scaled up in the future. Revenue sharing leading to low profits is not actually a big problem. Give two examples: 1) In January of this year, I was at https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/207688178453776475? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A said that the SaaS section of the security software was mistakenly killed, and the space is very good. So far, it has basically doubled. But if you look, most of these security SaaS companies are losing money and have no profit. A small portion of PE is at least 100 times higher. What is the core? The more AI develops and agents become more popular, the greater the demand for security. 2) June 24, here https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1798953514837610894? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A. I said PLTR is the future of Lockheed and Martin in the AI era, but there are also many who are not optimistic about it. The core issue is that the PE is too high, which was 500 times higher at that time, and cannot be sustained by government contracts. But the core is that PLTR was unique in the field of defense and military AI at that time, and now it may face direct competition from large model manufacturers. So the core is to look at growth, competitive landscape, and position. 5. The problem with Circle is that there is growth, and competing for a position in compliant stablecoins can be considered a bit ahead, but the current competition landscape for stablecoins is not good. Because there will still be many potential players entering the market, and every player with a certain level of strength or background will enter the market once. So last time here, https://((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2073012138390786398? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A discusses the stock nature of Circle: "This has led to Circle being more suitable for bands rather than trends until it fully proves its dominance and monopoly position in the compliant stablecoin field. How to understand? If it falls too much and oversold, you can actually buy some because there is a safety margin. But if it rises too much, we can't expect it to go any further, so we can't expect it to fall. Wait until you're fucked again, you can still enter at a low price. If the market confirms that USDC can establish a strong enough dominant position in the compliant stablecoin field in the future, then a decent trend market can emerge. ” Personal understanding, for reference only.
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