What do you think of the adjustment in the US stock market last night? Since last Thursday, it has been rising for four consecutive trading days, with a significant increase, especially for many stocks that can be said to have skyrocketed. In fact, it is normal to make adjustments. The macro level has also reached a critical point, and from a personal perspective, market adjustments are actually waiting for the macro level to provide direction 1) Is it true that the US and Iran have reached an agreement, or is it Iran and Oman? The expectations given in the past few days are very high, with statements from the United States, Oman, and Iran. The market now needs to see if it can be implemented. The final tremble is https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2084834326613840376? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 2) Last night's ADP small non farm was much lower than expected, so can tomorrow night's large non farm also be lower than expected? In my personal opinion, the probability is high. We have talked about the "World Cup effect" a long time ago, and the US labor market should not be so good. The non farm payroll in June illustrates this point. For the best macro scenario in the future market: 1) Regarding the new agreement reached in the Strait of Hormuz and the drop in oil prices, the market does not need to worry about a rebound in inflation (just how fast the downward trend will be). Whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen is even more important than next week's CPI data for July; 2) The non farm payroll is lower than expected, and the labor market is weak. Both of these can dispel concerns about interest rate hikes and boost market sentiment. If these two points cannot be achieved, we will naturally continue to grind. But one thing is clear, after this earnings season, we can see that the fundamentals of AI are not a problem. The commercialization of AI is accelerating, and we can see the time rhythm of investment returns. We can even calculate the preliminary ROIC framework https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2084231327222759656? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'