The Nasdaq is coming to a crucial position: whether this rebound is a restart or a correction of the lure in the top of the arc, the answer will be given in the next few days. From the graph, it can be seen that the high point has continued to decline since June, and the price has rebounded to near the downward trend line. The arc top has already taken shape, but it has not been confirmed yet. The true boundary between long and short is between 29500 and 29800: with a steady increase in volume, the top structure fails, and the index is expected to challenge 30400 to 30700 again; If the surge is blocked, it still belongs to the technical repair in the downward trend. The macro environment is not friendly to technology stocks. The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to a 19 year high, indicating that the cost of funds continues to rise; Inflation and economic data limit the Federal Reserve's room for easing. Previously, the market traded on the expectation of interest rate cuts, but now it is trading on whether high interest rates can begin to erode profits. The logic of financial reporting has also changed. The index seems strong, but the internal chips have clearly differentiated. Microsoft and Amazon continue to gain premiums through their cloud business, but Apple's weakness and pressure on some giants' free cash flow indicate that institutions are no longer willing to pay for AI stories and are only willing to reward companies that truly realize their revenue and profits. The joint buying of Japanese yen by the United States and Japan poses a risk of closing positions in yen arbitrage trading. Once funds are forced to sell US stocks and replenish Japanese yen, the most crowded technology and semiconductor industries will be the first to come under pressure. 29300-29600 is the rebound observation area. If it is significantly blocked, you can take a light position and go short, and hold steady at 30000 to leave. 26500-26800 is the core support zone, and only when there is a panic release and a stop down structure, will a light position rebound be considered. If it falls below 26000, stop trying. If 26500 is lost, the top of the arc will be considered truly confirmed, and the liquidity in the 24000 to 25000 area may be searched again below. The most important thing now is not to predict the rise and fall, but to wait for confirmation: breaking through 29800 respects the bulls, falling below 26500 respects the trend. Before that, patience is more valuable than opinions.