福禄寿 UV DAO|Aug 03, 2026 01:12
According to the *Financial Times*, the U.S. Treasury, through the New York Fed, has sold euros and bought yen with the help of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. This marks an extremely rare direct intervention by the U.S. to support the yen in nearly 30 years—the last similar action was the coordinated intervention by the G7 in 2011. Meanwhile, Reuters captured a photo of U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's notebook, which had the words "Buy ¥5-10 billion" written on it. Just thought you should know what I thought you should know ^_^
Why is the U.S. stepping in directly? The U.S. isn’t primarily worried about the yen’s depreciation itself, but rather the potential financial risks that could arise from its continued weakening. On one hand, if the yen keeps depreciating in a one-sided trend, it could lead to a market-wide consensus to short the yen, eventually triggering a currency crisis. On the other hand, a significant amount of global capital has been borrowed in low-interest yen to invest in U.S. stocks, AI, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets. If the yen appreciates rapidly in the future, these carry trades could unwind en masse, causing shockwaves in global financial markets.
This intervention is more about stabilizing market expectations than altering long-term trends. After all, $5-10 billion is relatively small compared to the $7 trillion+ daily turnover in the forex market. The real driver of the yen’s trajectory remains the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. If the Fed continues to maintain high rates while Japan’s rate hikes remain limited, capital will keep flowing into the dollar, and mere forex intervention won’t be enough to reverse the long-term trend.
This move feels more like drawing a "policy red line" for the market, signaling to traders not to short the yen recklessly without consequences. It might ease short-term risks, but it won’t solve the underlying issues. The yen’s future will ultimately depend on the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and changes in the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap.
The global economy is like a chessboard, with everything interconnected. A single missile can shift oil prices, a barrel of crude can impact inflation, and a rate hike can alter global asset prices. Events that seem unrelated will eventually ripple through liquidity and show up in everyone’s wallet.
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