看不懂的SOL|Jul 28, 2026 13:12
Why do I only touch the US stock market? I don't envy A-shares!
The gap between the Chinese and American stock markets is not a difference of a few points in short-term fluctuations, but a difference of an era in underlying rules.
A-shares are not difficult to invest in value, but the underlying logic does not support value investing.
2/The US stock market makes you a shareholder. You have the right to vote, can file a class action lawsuit, and the major shareholder's reduction of holdings must be disclosed. The cost of violating regulations is quite painful.
A-shares make you a bargaining chip. Many companies go public to raise funds, with major shareholders treating the company as an ATM and small and medium-sized shareholders having almost zero say.
3/Delisting rate is attitude. The US stock market is delisted by 2% -7% annually, and garbage companies are naturally eliminated.
The long-term average annual rate of A-shares is 0.33%, and shell resources are more valuable than the main business. You buy a good company and wait for its value to return, but even a bad company doesn't survive, and occasionally gets hyped up due to restructuring expectations. How do you do value investing?
The assessment cycle for public fund managers is one year, or even shorter. Bought an undervalued stock and it took three years for it to rise? Sorry, you were fired for ranking last in your first year.
The return cycle of value investing does not match the career cycle. It's not that fund managers are irrational, it's the mechanism that forces them to chase hot topics and make waves.
What about the US stock market? Rules make long termism rational. 401k and pension funds are long-term funds, with long institutional assessment cycles and mature repurchase and dividend culture in the company. The most crucial thing is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will undergo metabolism, with bad companies being eliminated and good companies coming in. If you buy an index, you are buying the evolutionary ability of the US economy.
The Nasdaq 100 has been annualized by 12% -13% since 1985, while the S&P 500 has been annualized by about 10% since 1926. They have experienced an 80% drop, 45% financial crisis, and 30% pandemic correction, all reaching new highs. This is not luck, it is compound interest on the system and company quality.
Many people ridicule A-share retail investors for being like leeks, but leeks are a result of the system. The positioning of A-shares is primarily as a financing tool, followed by an investment venue. Investor protection always comes after the financing function. In this environment, short-term speculation is actually a rational choice for individual investors.
So the gap is not that Chinese people lack patience, nor is it that Americans are smarter. Rules shape behavior. Long term holding of US stocks can make money, so there are many people who hold them for a long time; Long term holdings of A-shares are likely to be trapped, so there are many speculators.
What is the most ironic thing about 9/? Many of the best companies in China are not listed on the A-share market, but on the US and Hong Kong stock markets. I won't go into detail here. You are actually buying Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Google when you buy Nasdaq 100; By buying the S&P 500, you are buying over 700 of the world's top economic companies. What about A-shares? Many of the 'core assets' you have purchased have not even touched the door to global competition.
For ordinary people, the conclusion is simple: do not entrust your fate to a market that does not support long-term holding. Your salary can earn RMB, but your long-term capital should be allocated to places where time can become friends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are that places.
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