In its report on July 21, ING stated that new investment incentives are expected to support the long-term development of the U.S. aluminum smelting industry. However, in the short term, the U.S. market will still rely on imports, and the Midwest aluminum premium is expected to remain high. According to the new policies of the Trump administration, companies that build, expand, or refurbish U.S. aluminum smelting capacity can apply to import eligible aluminum products at a 25% tariff rate, rather than the standard 50% rate, as long as they meet approved investment milestones. Nevertheless, the U.S. has a long-standing structural deficit in primary aluminum supply. Despite years of tariff protection, domestic primary aluminum production has continued to decline. Currently, only four primary aluminum smelters remain operational in the U.S., leaving the country heavily reliant on imported aluminum. Adding new capacity will still take several years. The more fundamental issue lies in the fact that primary aluminum production is constrained by stable and competitively priced electricity supply, not just trade policies. While tariffs may improve project economics, new capacity requires billions of dollars in investment, long-term power purchase agreements, environmental approvals, and years of construction before additional production can truly enter the market. The fastest-moving project in the U.S. at present is the plan by Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum to build a primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma with an annual capacity of 750,000 tons. However, it is unlikely to bring meaningful additional supply to the U.S. market before 2030. The root causes of the high Midwest aluminum premium remain the high import tariffs, limited domestic capacity, and continued reliance on overseas supply. While the new incentive plan is expected to improve the long-term outlook for U.S. domestic primary aluminum production, it is unlikely to significantly reduce the country's reliance on imported aluminum or lower procurement costs in the coming years. Overall, this policy should be viewed as a long-term industrial strategy rather than a short-term solution to the U.S. primary aluminum supply shortage.