Next week's analysis: The wedge has broken through, and QQ is likely to rebound and explore the bottom again after testing First of all, let's conclude that the technical structure has turned bearish. This is a mid bull correction, not the beginning of a bear market The previously constructed convergent wedge shape on the daily chart of QQ has been officially confirmed to have fallen below. From the chart, it can be seen that the price has fallen out of the high triangle convergence range, MACD and RSI have weakened, and the short-term structure has become bearish. This judgment is mutually consistent with the technical aspects of S&P and Russell 2000. The three major indices showed technical confirmation of bearish sentiment at almost the same time point. QQ: The rebound is likely to be unsustainable and attract more investors (Figure 1) After breaking through the wedge, the most critical observation point next is the height and effectiveness of the rebound. If the rebound can return to the two moving averages of EMA20 and EMA50 and convert into support, then this round of break may just be a false fall. But if the rebound only touches the moving average and then falls back again, it means that the judgment of a downward break is completely valid. The current assessment is that there is a high probability of a rebound next Monday and Tuesday. The rebound range for QQ is roughly around 705 to 710, while it will be difficult to truly stand at the positions of EMA50 at 706 and EMA20 at 716716. The rebound is more likely to stop in the range of 705 to 710 and then weaken again. If the rebound fails and falls below the retracement and then falls again, the targets below are EMA100 (approximately 681) and EMA200 (approximately 645). The bottom line judgment is that it will not fall below the high of 637 at the end of January 2026, which is the endpoint of this round of adjustment. From a larger monthly level perspective, QQQ has now hit the lower limit of the expected monthly fluctuation, indicating that the magnitude of this downward trend itself is not small. If it continues to decline or even falls below the expected monthly lower limit in the future, it will create enough panic, and may even force the S&P to make up for its key support level, at which point it will usher in a truly significant stage rebound. The bulls want to completely overturn this bearish signal, and the conditions are quite strict If the market really wants to negate this bearish signal at the weekly level, it needs to see extreme strength of short selling. The 1-hour momentum chart must quickly turn positive at the beginning of next week, and QQQ needs to directly rise above 726 points with strong force and convert this position into support. At present, the probability of this condition is relatively low, and there is a higher probability that it will still follow the rhythm of "falling, rebounding, and short selling", and it is unlikely to achieve a V-shaped reversal in one step. SPY: There is a high probability that the rebound test will fail and the weekly support will be around 730 The S&P daily chart has confirmed a dead cross, creating a bearish structure with lower highs, and both MACD and RSI are leaning towards the bearish direction. The daily expected range for next week is roughly in the range of 739 to 747, with the weekly expected lower track around 730. A more likely way to go is to first rebound and test the upper track on Monday or Tuesday, and then fall back to the weekly support level after the rebound fails. IWM: in the most dangerous position There have been extremely rare multiple divergence signals in small cap stocks. The triple bottom divergence of MACD combined with the quadruple bottom divergence of RSI, and the current price range coincides with the expected downward trend of annual volatility, which also confirms the judgment that small cap stocks may lead the way in initiating mid-term corrections, making them the most technically fragile among the three major indices. Be cautious of the signals VIX and the US dollar Last Friday, the VIX surged more than 10% in a single day. According to historical statistical patterns, the probability of the index experiencing an upward trend within 1 to 2 trading days after this single day jump is actually not low. This is also a technical basis for the expected rebound on Monday and Tuesday next week. However, the VIX weekly chart itself has already emerged from an upward trend, indicating that the market is pricing for a mid-term correction. The dollar index should also be noted. The dollar is currently in a strong upward trend on weekly and daily lines. The USD weekly level inverse head and should see 105. The rise of the US dollar will suppress risky assets. Semiconductors are the direct driving force behind this round of decline In this round of adjustment, the weakening of the semiconductor sector is the main force dragging down the overall market and the Nasdaq. The trend of this line will directly determine the strength and height of QQQ's rebound in the future. If the semiconductor sector continues to be weak, QQQ's rebound in the range of 705 to 710 is likely to appear relatively weak. My own operational strategy: I haven't moved the spot, but I will use options as a hedge I have not made any adjustments to my positions in both regular and spot stocks, and my long-term logic has not changed. I will continue to hold on to what should be held. But considering the high probability of short-term "decline, rebound, and further decline". I plan to use QQ for a hedge, specifically using the Bear Put Spread due on August 21, 2026. The operation method is to buy a Put of ITM near the current price (with an exercise price of approximately 700-710), while selling a Put with a lower exercise price (with an exercise price of approximately 645-650, corresponding to the ultimate support level of EMA200 mentioned earlier). The advantage of doing this is that the low exercise price Put sold can continue to earn time value, while significantly offsetting the loss caused by the implied volatility drop on the buy Put. The maximum loss of the entire portfolio is locked in the net premium of the two leg option, and the risk is controllable. If the market really falls to around 645 before mid to late August, this combination will automatically realize maximum returns. This is not shorting the market, nor is it denying the logic of a long-term bull market. It is simply adding a short-term hedge to the existing positive stock positions to control the fluctuations during this adjustment period. Not investment advice, can be used as a reference.