The crypto community is currently in a relatively optimistic and bullish phase. The bear market has thrown almost everything at us—Iran war tensions, stagnant stock markets, weak ETF inflows, increasing open interest, and shorts capitalizing on every possible macro bearish factor. Yet, $BTC is still holding above $60K. Many people are starting to believe that $BTC has already established a bottom at $60K. However, historically, some of the most aggressive drops have occurred right after the market starts believing that all bearish factors have been priced in. In 2018, $BTC repeatedly found support around $6,000 for several months. Narratives like miner costs, long-term support, and exhausted selling pressure were everywhere, and the market treated $6,000 as an unbreakable bottom. Then, in November, liquidity suddenly collapsed, and the price plunged all the way to around $3,200. In 2022, after the LUNA, 3AC, and Celsius collapses, $BTC consolidated around $20K for nearly five months. The market believed that most of the industry’s leverage had been cleared out. Then came the FTX implosion, and $BTC dropped further to around $15.5K. Whether a bottom is established rarely depends on how many bearish events have already occurred. In reality, there are still plenty of potential sellers in the current crypto market who are sitting on profitable positions. When the next panic point hits these hidden whales, $BTC could drop even further.