深潮TechFlow|7月 16, 2026 08:54
[JPMorgan: AI Inference Extends Server Cycles, Memory Price Hikes Suppress PC Demand]
DeepTech TechFlow reports, according to Trend Research, JPMorgan significantly raised its server shipment forecast in its July 15 report, revising the 2026 growth rate from 15% to 22% and the 2027 growth rate from 8% to 25%. AI inference is the core driving force, as enterprises require a large number of inference servers to deploy AI models. JPMorgan estimates that by 2028, server CPU shipments will increase from 26 million units to 68 million units, with 53 million units driven by Agentic AI-related demand.
On the PC side, rising memory prices are suppressing demand. Brands are raising prices to maintain profit margins, but at the cost of sales volume. PC shipments are expected to decline by 8% in 2026, with consumer PCs dropping by 14%. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint, with no relief in sight for CPUs, substrates, memory, PCBs, or power components.
In the U.S. stock market, AI server manufacturers such as Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and AMD continue to benefit, while component suppliers like Arista Networks, Amphenol, Corning, Lumentum, and Micron Technology are gaining from the structural trend of value shifting toward components.
JPMorgan's recommendation: prioritize server component suppliers over OEMs, and avoid the PC sector overall.
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