Oh my goodness, some friends saw yesterday's strong rebound in Bitcoin prices and left me a message: (1) Didn't you say you wanted a pancake that starts with 4? You've seen it all over now (2) Will the Bitcoin bottom price of 45000 yuan that you mentioned still come I was a bit amused and didn't give them a direct answer. Instead, I asked them to take a good look at my latest series of articles. If you can't understand the direction of short-term and medium-term trends, and can't distinguish between volatile and trend trends, then patiently wait for the true bottom of the bear market to come before entering the market to buy the spot. In my in-depth analysis article "Is 60000 really the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market? Who is buying at 60000?" written on July 8th, I have made a clear prediction: From the five dimensions of quantity, space, time, funds, and emotions, the vicinity of 60000 does not have sufficient conditions for the "ultimate bottom". There is no bullish main quantity in terms of quantity, and there is still a 15% distance from the realized price in terms of space. It has only been running for 9 months and is below the historical average. ETFs and micro strategies are still selling in terms of funds, and emotions are only panic rather than despair. Therefore, personally, I still firmly believe that the price of Bitcoin at 60000 is highly likely not the final bottom of this bear market, but rather a "buffer zone" rather than a final destination. ” There is a serious divergence between the long and short sides around 60000, but the buyer is only attracting funds and has not formed a strong attacking force to reverse the trend. The true bottom of a bear market requires three conditions to be met simultaneously: seller exhaustion (ETF no longer flows out, micro strategy no longer sells), buyer aggression (bullish candlestick, bullish main volume can appear), and emotional despair (no one discusses buying the bottom anymore). There is a high probability that 60K will be repeatedly tested and even broken down, with the true bottom area at 53 to 55K (benchmark) or 45K (extreme), and the time pointing to Q4 (September to November), which is consistent with the historical bear market cycle of more than 12 months.