BitUnix analyst: Geopolitics pushes up risk premium again, core inflation is the real winning point BlockBeats News: On July 14th, the United States announced the blockade of Iranian ports, Iran maintained the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict has once again increased uncertainty in global energy supply. Although Iran has lifted its ban on exporting petrochemical products, the Strait of Hormuz remains an important channel for about one-fifth of the world's crude oil shipments. Any disruption to shipping will push up global energy costs again and force the market to reassess inflation risks in the coming months, rather than just focusing on short-term oil price fluctuations. Tonight, the market focus will be on the June CPI in the United States and the congressional hearing of Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh. The market generally expects that the overall CPI is expected to cool down due to the drop in energy prices in June, but the core inflation is still the true determinant of policy direction. If the prices of medical, insurance, financial and other services continue to grow at a high level, it means that the inflationary pressure in the United States has gradually shifted from energy driven to structural service inflation. Even if the overall CPI decreases, it is not enough to change the Federal Reserve's attitude towards high interest rate policies. It is worth noting that the market has almost completely digested the September interest rate hike and priced it at two cumulative rate hikes until March next year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has made it clear that if core inflation exceeds expectations again, the FOMC will have to consider further tightening monetary policy in the short term. This means that what the market is really trading tonight is not a single CPI data, but whether the Federal Reserve has sufficient reasons to further strengthen the path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time" or even accelerate policy tightening. On the other hand, AI remains the core direction of global capital expenditure. Meta announced an additional $40 billion investment in data centers, and the South Korean government raised its future tax estimates due to the AI chip boom. TSMC's revenue in June increased by 68% annually and reached a historic high, reflecting that global AI infrastructure is still rapidly expanding. Even though overall demand is facing high interest rate pressure, AI related companies continue to attract capital investment, and there are no obvious signs of cooling down in the fundamentals of the technology industry. Looking ahead to the future, tonight's CPI is not only verifying whether inflation in June has cooled down, but also confirming whether the market's judgment on the future inflation structure is correct. If core inflation remains sticky, coupled with the ongoing escalation of energy risks in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve will have more compelling reasons to maintain a tightening policy. US bond yields and the US dollar may remain high, and risk assets will continue to face pressure from funding costs. After BTC failed to effectively stabilize in the $63000 pressure zone yesterday, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether to further backtrack the $60000 integer level in the short term. Tonight's inflation data and the Federal Reserve's statement will become important catalysts for determining the direction of short-term fluctuations.