laogo.ai|Jul 13, 2026 04:05
On-chain Update: Valuation enters deep discount, but long-term holders are still selling
The latest full report from Glassnode shows that BTC has been trading below the following levels for approximately five months:
$72,200: Short-term holder cost basis
$76,600: True Market Mean
Long-term holders' realized losses account for about 43% of total realized value, with daily realized loss peaks reaching approximately $280 million—the highest level since December 2022. This metric has yet to show a sustained decline. Glassnode believes the bottoming process is in its later stages but not yet complete.
Potential impact: Mid-term bullish, short-term bearish.
Deep discounts favor patient capital accumulation, but every rebound faces selling pressure from underwater long-term holders looking to break even. A true mid-term trend recovery would at least require:
- A significant decline in long-term holders' realized losses
- Consistent positive ETF inflows
- Price reclaiming the $72.2k cost basis zone.
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