The FOMC at the end of the month is the best turning point period Brothers, a new week has begun! The viewpoint mentioned last week: The weekly trend has reversed, and there is extremely strong demand for buying near 59k. Bears will be feeling uncomfortable for a while, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 65622 The expectation of interest rate cuts, which will continue to improve due to weak employment data, is synchronized with the volatile market of the US stock market. The highest point reached 64692, maintaining volatility. However, fortunately, it did not break through the pressure level of 65622, which was the highest point last week. This means that bulls are also facing resistance, and long and short positions are currently evenly matched. An interesting piece of data is that the probability of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool raising interest rates in September has continued to increase from 29% a month ago to 71.4% this week, with the probability of a 50 basis point increase increasing from 1.7% a month ago to 19.8% now. However, the probability of the PM's position remaining unchanged is still over 60%, which is clearly a divergence. We will see later which data is more accurate, CME with more institutions or PM with more retail investors. Stay tuned! ⌛ ️ Returning to the pancake review 1、 Technical aspect: Last week, the price range of 63650-63780 slightly increased, with K almost like a cross star. The closing price fell for the sixth time near the 5-week long battle of 63300, indicating a significant divergence between long and short positions in this area. It is highly likely that the range oscillation will continue before the FOMC meeting on the 29th Support level (last week's lowest price): 61306 Pressure level (highest price last week): 64700 2、 Message surface: Last week, the overall news was neutral to bullish, driven by weak employment data leading to improved expectations of interest rate cuts and institutions gradually replenishing at a low level Micro strategy selling of approximately 3588 BTC (approximately $216 million) increases short-term supply pressure Circle has obtained regulatory/institutional friendly events such as approval from the US Trust Bank; The market is starting to discuss the historical seasonal pattern of "a dismal June followed by a rebound in July" (July has often performed well in bear markets in the past) ✍️ Emotional summary: There is a rebound in extreme fear. The mentality of holders on X is relatively firm ("I only focus on fixed investment and do not care about institutional selling"), but confidence is still weak and has not formed a FOMO style pursuit of gains. Altcoins follow BTC rebound, but without independent strength (ETH/BTC weekly chart shows signs of breaking through 11 month downward trend, some people are bullish on alt season start) 3、 Macro funding aspect 1. The funding aspect was the most critical observation point last week, as ETFs shifted from large outflows for 8 consecutive weeks to a preliminary recovery with a net inflow of approximately $197 million, but it is still a "tentative replenishment" rather than a complete reversal. 2. Macro environment: Weak employment data → expected interest rate cuts rebound → favorable for BTC (high beta risk asset). The upcoming key data: CPI on July 14th and FOMC meeting on July 28-29 will determine whether the rebound can continue. Geopolitical/oil price fluctuations bring short-term disturbances, but do not undermine overall liquidity improvement expectations. Institutional behavior differentiation: Some long-term allocators are replenishing at low levels, while others are still reducing their holdings or observing, resulting in a "dual sky" situation in terms of funding Then serialize and update the @ ForeDex_Global data that you are following MA200：75672——74709——73866 STH：69709——68828——68601 TMP：76795——76541——76454 RP：53216——53061——52982 LTH：49805——49811——49916 CVDD：46316——46396——46428 Average mining cost: 45480-44780-43310 BTC：60000—— 63200——62740 Overall review and outlook: Last week was the first week of stabilization after a deep adjustment in June, and the short-term direction is likely to remain within a range of fluctuations. The volatility is expected to increase on the 14th and 29th. The best expectation is that institutions will price ahead and rush to raise interest rates in September, while retail investors will be more cautious. From the probability ratio of PM, it can be seen that retail investor sentiment has not yet entered a state of interest rate hikes. By the time the probability of PM raising interest rates is more than half, there should be a big market trend, and we should continue to wait for the show to start Brothers, see you next week!! sixty-two thousand and eight hundred ✊✊