qinbafrank|Jul 12, 2026 11:30
What did NVIDIA say during the closed door performance? What rumors have you responded to? This week, Da Mo organized a non trading roadshow for Nvidia in California, with Huang, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress, and IR head Toshiya Har personally attending and intensively meeting with investors. This closed door meeting mainly aims to clarify and respond to market concerns about product progress, ASIC competition, and growth sustainability (FUD). Sort out the core content and key points of the closed door meeting:
1. Revenue growth and overall outlook (most closely watched)
1) The single quarter revenue has reached a scale of billions of dollars, and the growth rate is still accelerating upwards. This is seen as a strong signal, indicating that demand far exceeds previous expectations.
2) The strong business cycle of Vera Rubin products will bring significant orders and revenue growth in the next 12 months, which is the main driver of short-term growth.
3) Da Mo and other institutions have given optimistic forecasts: revenue for the 2027 fiscal year is about 393 billion US dollars, and for the 2028 fiscal year it is about 598.8 billion US dollars.
4) CPU business goal: Strive to reach $20 billion this fiscal year.
2. Product Roadmap and New Product Progress (Key Refutation of Rumors)
1) Rubin Ultra: Clearly stating that it will be shipped next year (2027), completely denying market rumors of a delay until 2028. The roadmap remains unchanged.
2) Kyber rack: The current design is a transitional solution, which will be replaced by a more optimal solution in the future to support larger scale vertical expansion of single racks (larger computing clusters). This belongs to optimization adjustments, not delays or issues; Maintaining flexibility in the roadmap can reduce the risk of capacity ramp up.
3) Core technology is advancing as planned:
800V power supply system.
Optical links/inter rack optical vertical expansion.
The overall next generation product cycle (including the Rubin series) has not undergone significant changes, and Huang Renxun personally clarified, demonstrating the company's confidence in the progress.
3. ASIC Competition and Market Share
1) Despite some cloud vendors and cutting-edge AI labs investing heavily in custom ASICs (dedicated chips), Nvidia still maintains a strong dominant position.
2) Key case: A major client that previously relied heavily on ASICs for cutting-edge model development has significantly increased the usage of NVIDIA GPUs to nearly 50% (market speculation may point to labs such as Anthropic). This is seen as a major validation - even the ASIC camp needs more Nvidia GPUs.
3) Reason: Nvidia has the lowest token usage cost, and its full stack ecosystem (GPU+network+software+CPU, etc.) forms a powerful moat. Frontier AI workloads still heavily rely on its platform.
4) The AI laboratory currently accounts for about 20% of AI computing power demand, and its demand is growing significantly.
4. Customer diversification and new growth engines
1) The customer structure has shifted from heavily relying on a few top hyperscalers in the past to diversification: AI labs, enterprise customers, new emerging cloud service providers (neocloud), and sovereign AI projects (driven by data security, industry autonomy, geopolitical factors, and increasing importance).
2) New growth points (enterprises, sovereign AI, industrial sector customers) may grow faster than traditional hyperscalers, reducing concentration risk.
5. Supply Chain and Supply Constraints
1) The shortage of memory (HBM, etc.) supply is expected to continue for several years. The demand for AI tokens is growing faster than the expansion of storage/memory capacity, leading to industry shortages (affecting data center components, GPUs, and AI operations).
Huang Renxun explicitly stated that memory shortage is a long-term phenomenon.
2) The overall supply remains the main bottleneck, but Nvidia is responding through diversified supply chains and planning.
6. Other management perspectives and capital returns
1) Strong free cash flow (FCF) supports shareholder returns: Over 50% of future cash flow may be used for shareholder returns such as repurchases.
2) The all AI infrastructure platform (hardware+network+software) continues to strengthen its moat.
Da Mo Summary:
The market's concerns about product delays, competition, and sustainable growth have been exaggerated, and Nvidia is "firing on all cylinders".
Da Mo maintains a strong bullish stance and has raised its target price to $288 (corresponding to significant upward potential).
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