The 50s-90s might have felt so different because the turn of the millenium was where the wheels of the American Dream began to squeak and shake. 1999-2000 was the all time peak of labor force participation, the last govt surplus, a growth in Real GDP (in USD terms) that stood for 20-years, and a decade later the Boomers began retiring. We have been sliding downhill since, albeit from a mighty peak. Multiple decades of fertility below replacement rate was masked until recent years, and we are now starting to feel its gravity as prime age population growth and native birth rates are flattening. Deaths will outnumber native births by next decade. Now the dominant function of federal outlays is preservation of a welfare state that is mathematically incapable of sustaining itself. And these promises represent expected incomes for tens of millions of Americans thus are not easily cut or wiped away. We are far beyond elegant solutions. No political party or leader can change this with policy, though they will make such promises, exploiting the rage and restlessness of the proletariat. Populism has been on the rise since after the GFC, and will rise further. A natural reaction to gross imbalances. Since the pandemic, the net worths of lower income cohorts have grown, and dissaving has maintained their consumption. But their quality of life is being undermined by persistent inflation that goes underreported by the Fed and shows little sign of abating. Sentiment as a result is completely unmoored from asset prices, in part because the working classes do not own enough assets. This will only get worse and, coupled with increasingly brazen corruption and inept leadership, is eroding the very fabric of civil society. Ultimately the Haves Not will declare political war on the Haves, and will desire to redistribute wealth via new taxes, social programs, and income subsidies. We are already seeing these efforts. And they will solve nothing. In the end we will debase until bust as Congress caves to the pressure of younger voters demanding their piece of the pie. And bust we certainly shall. The American Dream is dead. The Fourth Turning is here.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)