If you are a cyclical trader, you cannot miss this one! In this bear market, BTC has reached around $60000 for two periods, in February March and June July. Comparing the performance of LTH in these two segments, we can observe that: one ⃣ In February of this year, LTH's 30 day daily transfer peak was 15313 BTC and lasted for 15 days. At the end of June this year, the number was 14181, and it only lasted for 3 days, mostly around 12000. two ⃣ Looking at LTH's 30 day loss, it peaked at $239 million during February this year, compared to $284 million in June. Compared to February, the LTH distribution in June was smaller in scale and shorter in duration, but achieved higher losses; This indicates that the average cost of LTH chips sold here is higher. In other words, when BTC fell below $60000 for the second time, it shattered the psychological defenses of some high-level holders. If the first time was a panic, then this time is a typical signal of surrender! Similar situations occurred in the previous cycle, July and December of 2022, but due to the FTX storm, many holders were forced to withdraw from the exchange, leading to a surge in on chain transfers. And this cycle does not need to consider this factor, so the "surrender behavior" shown is also more pure. Afterwards, it is time for cyclical traders to unleash their keen insight. ------------------------------------ PS: Both sets of data are "entity adjusted", and the data has been cleaned to exclude internal transfer data under the same entity.