**[HTX DeepThink: U.S.-Iran Conflict Reignites Oil Price Surge, Crypto Market Faces Liquidity Stress Test]** Deep潮 TechFlow reports that on July 9, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that as of July 9, 2026, the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked Iran's oil sales exemptions, signaling the market needs to reprice the risk of the "temporary peace agreement breakdown." Previously, the market narrative centered around ceasefire, falling oil prices, easing inflation pressures, and the Federal Reserve not needing to turn hawkish, thereby providing risk assets with room for recovery. However, with risks in the Strait of Hormuz heating up again, oil prices have once again become the core variable in macro pricing. The most critical concern moving forward is the "return of energy inflation." If attacks near Hormuz persist, shipping insurance costs rise, or Iranian oil exports are further restricted, oil prices may remain elevated, thereby boosting inflation expectations, narrowing the Fed's dovish pivot space, and even reigniting discussions about rate hikes. In this environment, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may strengthen, while gold, despite its safe-haven attributes, could face short-term pressure if real interest rates rise. For the crypto market, this is not a straightforward safe-haven benefit but rather resembles a liquidity stress test. Currently, BTC is still primarily traded as a high-beta risk asset rather than a pure war-related safe-haven asset. If oil prices continue to rise, the dollar strengthens, and U.S. tech stocks pull back, BTC may repeatedly test key support levels, while altcoins face greater pressure—ETH, SOL, and high FDV new tokens are particularly vulnerable to liquidity contraction and declining risk appetite. What’s more noteworthy is that this conflict occurs against the backdrop of weakening narratives around AI and tech stocks. Recently, divergences have emerged in AI computing power, semiconductors, and high-valuation growth stocks, indicating the market's diminishing capacity to sustain crowded trades. If macro factors further compound oil price shocks, the crypto market is likely to exhibit high volatility, weak rebounds, and a downward shift in focus in the short term. Key indicators to watch in the coming week include: whether Brent crude oil prices stabilize above $80, whether U.S. short-term interest rates continue to rise, whether BTC ETF inflows recover, and whether contract market OI remains high despite declines. If these signals simultaneously deteriorate, the crypto market may enter a new round of deleveraging; if oil prices quickly retreat and negotiations resume, BTC could lead a ceasefire recovery rebound. *Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.*