Is deleveraging nearing its end? A more accurate statement would be: deleveraging is nearing its end, but there may still be a second confirmation. Last night, the overall risk appetite of the US stock market slightly rebounded, but macro pressures held down the index, and the semiconductor sector strengthened against the trend with orders and policy news. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.23%, making it the only main force barely holding up the Nasdaq. The synchronous increase in oil prices and US bond yields directly reduces the attractiveness of risky assets. Personal core judgment: The AI hardware mainline has not yet come to an end, but it is currently in the repricing stage of "deleveraging+shifting from crowded trading to order certainty". This round of deleveraging is likely to be coming to an end, but it is not yet time to completely reverse and breathe a sigh of relief. 1. The main theme of the market last night was actually the contradiction between the rise in oil prices and interest rates versus the rebound in semiconductors. Trump said that with the end of the armistice memorandum, oil prices rebounded and US bond yields rose. The semiconductor side held onto the nanofinger. Broadcom surged 4.8% due to Apple's long-term chip purchase agreement; Nvidia rose 3.65% due to news in the market that China may open up some H200 purchases; Semiconductor internal: ASIC, interconnect, and device chain are the strongest The top performers in semiconductor prices last night were CRDO, AVGO, NXPI, NVDA, WDC, and MPWR. Looking at the chain: 1) ASIC/custom chips: AVGO is the most eye-catching, with Apple signing a multi-year agreement worth over $30 billion until 2031, and plans to invest another $1.5 billion in expanding production in Colorado, USA. This line has the highest order visibility and the strongest certainty. 2) AI GPU: NVDA is significantly stronger than AMD, mainly due to the possible marginal loosening of H200 sales restrictions in China. 3) Data Center Interconnection: CRDO continues to lead the market, indicating a growing awareness that AI clusters are not just about GPUs, but also about networking SerDes、 The bottleneck links of optical interconnection are equally important. 4) Equipment and testing: AMAT, TER, LRCX, KLAC, ASML all rose, indicating that the market still believes that the AI capital expenditure cycle is not over. 5) Simulation/Power/Industrial: NXPI, ON, TXN, ADI, etc. have seen a rebound, and funds have begun to spread from the most crowded AI direction to stagnant sectors. 6) Storage: MU and WDC have rebounded, but their amplitude and sustainability are not as good as the above ones. South Korean SK Hynix also made a significant rebound today, but this line fell the hardest in the early stage and has the highest leverage. Overall, the market is not denying the demand for AI, but rather punishing overcrowded trading and deleveraging under the previously mentioned high leverage and crowded positions. Today, all Asian markets rebounded, and chips rebounded. However, the yield of Japanese 10-year treasury bond bonds has risen to around 2.88%, and the dollar/yen is still around 162. The suppression of rising interest rates on valuation cannot be ignored 2. Positive and negative factors at the industry level The benefits mainly focus on order and policy flexibility: Long term agreement between Apple and Broadcom; Possible marginal relaxation of Nvidia H200 sales to China; SK Hynix's financing has been caught by the market (seven times subscription); TSMC has previously raised its full year guidance and emphasized strong demand for AI; Meta is planning to invest in the construction of its first AI data center in Canada. The negative effects are concentrated on the valuation ceiling and crowding: oil prices and interest rates constitute the upper limit of the overall market valuation; Although there is still long-term demand for memory cables, they are the most crowded in the short term, and the month on month price growth may slow down in the second half of the year; South Korean retail investors still have high leverage, which can easily amplify volatility; Last night, big tech stocks did not follow the rise of semiconductors, indicating that the market still has doubts about the return cycle of AI capital expenditures. It seems that for https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2074754779755295164? The reshaping of the value of ultra large CSP discussed in s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has not yet reached a consensus, but it is still an expectation gap. 3. Is deleveraging coming to an end? The first round of rapid deleveraging is likely to come to an end, but the complete liquidation has not been confirmed yet. The signals that support nearing the end are: 1) The semiconductor sector experienced an overall rebound last night, rather than individual efforts; 2) The most crowded HBM direction in South Korea showed a significant rebound today; 3) SK Hynix's financing demand remains strong, and fundamental funds have not withdrawn. The South Korean market has just experienced a single day drop and a pullback of over 20%, with retail leverage still at a high level. Leveraged ETF mechanisms will continue to amplify volatility. A more realistic judgment is: There is a high probability that deleveraging has already gone through the most panicked wave of stampede and forced shipment, but it may still require secondary confirmation. Subsequent key observation points include: Is SK Hynix ADR stable in the future Is KOSPI no longer at a new low Can SOX/SMH continue to recover lost territories Is Brent no longer accelerating upward Can the US Treasury yield remain stable below 4.6% Next week's CPI may be a critical watershed. The core of investment discipline afterwards lies in continuous differentiation: Who is the real cash flow bottleneck, and who is just a long-term option; Whose decline is fundamental disruption, and whose decline is just crowding out; When to retain core positions, when to cut flexibility, and when to restructure after risk release is completed.