Phyrex|7月 09, 2026 04:25
US Stock Data Series (6): Technology Stock Index Has Not Crashed, But Individual Stocks Have Beared Nearly 60%
In the previous few articles, I have been talking about the flow of funds in technology stocks, institutional positions, hedge fund reductions, retail investors chasing gains, and the stagnation of global funds since June. Today's data is just in line with the previous content.
The latest data shows that 59.46% of stocks in the S&P 500 information technology sector have fallen more than 20% from their highs in the past year. To put it simply, the tech stock index appears to be at a high level, but nearly 60% of the stocks have already fallen into a tech bear market.
This is also the most easily misjudged aspect of the US stock market nowadays. Many friends are staring at the Nagi QQQ、 Heavyweight stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom may feel that technology stocks are quite strong, at most a normal pullback. But if we look at the index separately, many small and medium-sized technology stocks, non core technology stocks, and even some stocks that rose with AI sentiment have already fallen.
The index can still hold on, indicating that a few large votes are still struggling, but the range of increase has become increasingly narrow.
Combined with the data I recently released, looking at each data individually may just be a phenomenon, but when taken together, it represents that the internal support of technology stocks has begun to weaken. Of course, this is not because the US stock market is about to fail, but rather that most small and medium-sized technology stocks, except for top tier technology and semiconductors, can no longer withstand it.
This is also closely related to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The prosperity of AI is not a feast for the whole nation. Only a few can continue to thrive and survive in a high interest rate environment after FOMO, and most may be sluggish for a period of time, waiting for liquidity to recover again.
The next key is to see if the funds will flow back into technology stocks in the future. If so, the stocks that have fallen still have a chance to recover and the market can breathe a sigh of relief. But if funds continue to flow out, institutions continue to reduce their positions, and retail investors continue to buy at high levels, the pressure will eventually slowly spread to the index itself.
This is also what I have always said, we cannot just look at the index. The index is the final manifestation, and the flow of funds, changes in positions, and market width are the ones that are exposed earlier. Many risks do not appear until the day when the index drops sharply, often it is the day when the index first drops and then it is the turn for the index to react.
In addition, the heavyweight stocks are still very strong at present, and the top technology and semiconductor companies have not completely collapsed, so personally I will not directly conclude that the US stock market is no longer strong. Next, I will first check the cash flow and wait for the financial report later this month.
If the funds flow back, the problem may only be an internal correction. If funds continue to flow out, then be careful, the index that is still at a high level may only be supported by a few large votes.
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