Bomb flying, BTC only dropped 2%? The market is numb, that's the most dangerous thing The US military bombed Iran for two consecutive days. More than 80 targets were destroyed - air defense systems, command networks, coastal radars, and over 60 speedboats. The passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has been "basically stopped". Brent crude oil once broke through $80 in the market, with a daily surge of over 7%. And then? Bitcoin fell 2%, fluctuating around $62000. The three major stock indexes in the US - the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq surprisingly rose 0.2%. Gold? It's also falling. For three consecutive days, it fell to $4070. War broke out, oil prices skyrocketed, BTC only fell 2%, gold did not rise but fell, and the Nasdaq still turned red? Are you sure this is the market during the war? Traditional scripts are all in chaos. According to textbooks, war=safe haven=gold skyrocketing, stock market plummeting, Bitcoin following panic stampede. Now then? BTC seems to be fine, while the tech stocks of the Nasdaq rose against the trend, and gold was actually hit hard. What's wrong with the market? Is it rational digestion, or is the risk severely underestimated? The truth is: the market can no longer distinguish which statement is true. Trump said that the ceasefire agreement has "ended" and there may be another fierce attack on Iran tonight. Trump also said: Iran just called and is very eager to reach an agreement. Trump also said that it's okay if oil prices rise, as there is an oversupply of oil in the United States. Three sentences, three directions. Same mouth. On the Iranian side: while high-level officials hinted at willingness to negotiate, the parliament threatened to block the Strait of Mandeb - extending the threat from Hormuz to the Red Sea gateway. One says' I want to fight ', one says' I want to talk', and one says' I can still upgrade '. How do you let the market price it? This is where the problem lies. The market does not 'rationally digest' risks. The market has been overwhelmed by wolves. From the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on June 22 to now, it has been less than 20 days - ceasefire, tearing up, striking, negotiating, striking again, calling for negotiations again. Every time it claims to be an 'escalation of the situation', BTC stabilizes after falling 2-3%. The wolves came and shouted too much, and the villagers were too lazy to even close the door. But this time, the wolf may really be at the door. btc