The oversubscription of SKHY Hynix ADR this time is exaggerated. According to Reuters, it has exceeded 7 times and is expected to start trading on Nasdaq on July 10th. Why is ADR so hot, while the Korean stock of Hynix actually falls? I think there may be three reasons. Firstly, institutions need to allocate funds to participate in ADR subscription. The funds originally holding Korean stocks may first reduce a portion of their positions and switch to US dollar funds to participate in US stock ADRs. Secondly, arbitrage funds should be pre positioned. If ADR has a premium later on, common trades are to go long on ADR, go short on Korean stocks, or sell Korean stocks first and then switch to ADR after it is listed. Thirdly, the South Korean market itself is also digesting semiconductor profit taking and short-term risk sentiment, so the decline cannot be entirely attributed to ADR. The focus is on Friday. If SKHY opens high and goes high after going public, it indicates that US funds are willing to give HBM leaders a higher valuation, and there is a high probability that South Korean Hynix's main stock will see a rebound in the future. For the 7709, this is the most direct elasticity tool because it is twice as long as the Hong Kong stock market's Hynix, and both ups and downs will be amplified. If ADR shows strong performance on Friday's listing, the market is likely to trade ahead of schedule in anticipation of a surge in Korean stocks. For DRAM ETFs, the main impact is the sentiment of the storage sector in the US stock market during intraday trading. If SKHY strengthens, the entire memory basket is easily lifted. So the most important thing on Friday is not how much SKHY opens up, but whether it can close at a high level and whether the premium of ADR relative to Korean stocks can be stabilized. I personally prefer to open high and go low. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a premium of around 20% or even higher on the first day of listing, but the key is whether the closing can be held. If the premium stabilizes, this is a positive signal for the Korean Hynix stock, 7709, DRAM ETF, and MU. If the opening is too high and then quickly falls back, the short-term may actually turn into redemption. In addition, from a technical perspective, the main stock of South Korean Hynix has rebounded from the daily EMA 55. If it continues to recover, I will personally focus on the 2.4-2.5 million Korean won range; I will pay attention to the EMA ETF around $2066; I will pay attention to the positions of $980-1000 and $1030 for MU. If these positions rebound well, I will consider reducing my holdings in batches and then switching to Hynix ADR.