Murphy|7月 06, 2026 02:29
Although $BTC rebounded from 58k to nearly 64k, the relative spot trading volume (indicating the activity level of current trading volume compared to the recent average) is dropping rapidly.
Without support from spot demand, it's hard to establish a foundation for a trend reversal; these are often just sentiment-driven recovery bounces. Within this framework, we’re more focused on the sustainability of the rebound.
On the brighter side: the USDC/USDT exchange rate dropped from 1.001 to 1.0006. This pullback in the rate suggests a weakening intent to exit and a rising intent to trade. While the change isn’t huge, the direction is positive.
Looking at "mainstream stablecoins on exchanges," although there’s still a net outflow, the scale of outflows is narrowing. This easing of funding pressure is a marginal improvement for the continuation of the rebound.
However, as the driving force in the spot market weakens, the weight of the derivatives market relatively increases. With the price rebound, short positions are covering, some longs are taking profits, and OI (open interest) has declined slightly. But compared to February this year, it’s still relatively high.
At the same time, the 7-day moving average of perpetual contract long premiums continues to rise, reaching $160,000/hour, indicating that taker buying is consistently pushing perpetual prices above spot prices.
It’s normal for perpetual contract longs to take the lead, and this is still within a normal range. But I’m concerned that as the rebound continues, the risk of a long squeeze will accumulate. If OI rebounds again, intense long-short battles could lead to faster and sharper volatility.
This is a potential risk to watch out for in advance.
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