BTC has a kind of 'upside open, downside limited to principal' convexity for long-term holders, but this only applies to those who don't get liquidated, aren't forced to sell, and don't lose their coins. If you use leverage, the curve flips immediately: No leverage: Downside at most to zero, upside open With leverage: Before the upside comes, short-term drops might take you out So the core of 'hodling BTC' isn't about predicting the top, but avoiding turning yourself into a concave structure.