Phyrex|7月 03, 2026 06:30
Institutions and hedge funds are leaving, while retail investors are entering more aggressively!
According to the latest data from Citadel Securities and GMI, as long as the S&P 500 falls in 2026, the average net buying power of retail cash stocks will be close to 3.5 times the normal daily average, which is the most extreme since 2020. In contrast, the net buying power of retail investors on S&P rising days is only about 1.4 times.
To put it simply, the more the US stock market falls, the more retail investors buy, and on days of decline, they buy much more aggressively than on days of rise.
When viewed together with the data on the outflow of funds from technology stocks, there is a strong sense of conflict. On one hand, there was a sudden shift from a net inflow of over $20 billion to a net outflow of $15 billion for technology sector funds, while on the other hand, Goldman Sachs Prime Book showed extreme net sales of nearly -4 standard deviations for hedge funds and institutional accounts in the US information technology sector.
It can be clearly seen that institutions and hedge funds are reducing their holdings in technology stocks, but retail investors are aggressively buying when the index falls.
This also explains why there has been a significant outflow of funds from technology stocks recently, but there has not been a particularly continuous crash like decline. Because every time the index rebounds, retail investors rush in to take in. In the past few years, the US stock market, especially AI and technology stocks, has trained many retail investors to have a trading habit of "buying when prices fall". Previously, a decline could easily trigger panic, but now it has become a signal to get on the road.
Of course, this is also strongly related to the fact that the US stock market, especially the index, has been rising in recent years, especially from the current perspective, as long as it rises after a sharp decline, it will be better. April 2025 is the best example.
However, I did some research, including the large-scale decline in April 2025 and March 2026. Either Trump or Trump is doing something. One is the tariff war. Finally, the United States and China raised tariffs to the ceiling. Then the U.S. TACO, one is the war between the United States and Iran, and it feels like the U.S. TACO
So doing so is not completely risk-free. Although retail investors buying when the market falls can make the market more resilient in the short term and quickly repair many corrections, if institutional selling is not over, technology funds continue to flow out, and the July earnings season cannot continue to provide strong profits and guidance, the more retail investors take on the market, the greater the volatility they may experience in the future.
Professional funds start to reduce their positions when there is a lot of noise, while individual investors accelerate their buying during each decline.
It is difficult to judge which one is right in the current US stock market. At least from the perspective of the market, both the former and the latter have made money, but the latter needs more time to endure, and the essence of the latter is to long the US stock market, not simply long the US stock market.
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