小龙先生|7月 04, 2026 21:30
Who is buying Bitcoin over the weekend and pushing the price up to around 63350?
Now the price of BTC has rebounded to around 63350, approaching the 0.618 level of Fibonacci retracement, as shown in Figure 1.
The market liquidity on weekends is only about half of that on weekdays, and prices are secretly rising, indicating that there are indeed people behind it.
Who is actively buying BTC on weekends? The on chain data shows that three types of funds are in action, please refer to Figure 2.
The first category: retail investors+medium-sized holders. The most proactive buyer is surprising.
Glassnode's "increase trend rating" has significantly rebounded in the past month, with wallets of all sizes generally engaging in bottom fishing behavior.
Almost all sizes of addresses are entering the accumulation stage synchronously, and investors of different sizes are synchronously increasing their holdings, which is usually an important signal for building the technical foundation of long-term market recovery.
The second category: Long term holders (LTH) who switch from selling to buying.
Long term holders have shifted from net distribution to net increase in holdings, with a net increase in holdings of approximately 50000 to 100000 BTC. Glassnode points out that "the sustained transition from net distribution to net increase in holdings often occurs during market downturns, where long-term investors gradually increase their positions while short-term participants reduce their risk exposure
As of July 3rd, long-term holders control approximately 78% of the circulating supply (about 15.6 million BTC), which is still on the rise.
If the indicator continues to rise in August, it will reflect that the chips bought during the period of falling below $60000 in February have entered a long-term holding phase, indicating the emergence of new demand.
Category 3: The largest whale, which has not yet moved.
The super whale group holding over 10000 BTC has an increase rating of only 0.4-0.5, which is still close to neutral and has not yet shown a clear intention to increase its holdings.
Glassnode has issued a clear warning: it is still too early to assert that the trend has entered a phase of comprehensive increase in holdings, and the participation of the largest holders is needed for the trend to truly self reinforce.
The real logic behind the weekend Bitcoin price increase is as follows:
Based on the above data, the weekend's sneaky rise was driven by retail investors, mid sized holders, and long-term holders buying, coupled with seasonal patterns in July and short-term technical signal resonance. The biggest whale has not yet taken action, and ETFs have only slowed down their outflows and have not officially returned.
The "holiday trading" state, with a trading volume of about one-third of the working day, raises questions about whether this breakthrough can continue once liquidity is restored. When liquidity is thin, small funds can push prices, and the real test is on Monday working days - confirmation of large quantities counts.
At present, the resistance is at 63800 and the support is at 60000. If the price can break through and hold at 63800, it will mark the end of the downward trend that began in January. 65400 is the next important target position.
Please follow my upcoming article '62500 Stepping Under Your Feet, Is Bitcoin a' Fake Breakthrough 'or a' Real Turnaround '?' to unveil the new fog of the current Bitcoin market for you!
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