I really hope everyone has followed suit and copied to the end in batches, especially the few targets I mentioned repeatedly before Recently, people have been asking me in the comment section whether I can still buy now or if it's already too late. I have really reminded you many times in a row. Since the end of the Federal Reserve meeting on June 18th, I have been saying almost every day that the same viewpoint has not changed: don't chase after the rise, wait for the pullback, and buy low in batches. tried my best Technical aspect At that time, I always emphasized that the S&P 500 was unlikely to effectively fall below the EMA50 around 7310. The result was that the market only briefly fell below, quickly recovering after hitting a low of 7296, and at the same time, a clear MACD bottom divergence was formed at the 1-hour level. Last Thursday night, I also drew a chart and made a judgment in advance: on Friday, it will first fall to around 7300-7310, wash out the panic market, and then rebound. The subsequent trend is basically following this script. The original image is here (Figure 1) Besides the technical aspect, I also kept sharing option data at that time At that time, the Total Put/Call Ratio reached 1.12, indicating that the overall number of people buying Put in the market was much higher than buying Call, even higher than the panic at the end of March this year. This extreme emotion often means that once the index stops falling and rebounds, bears need to replenish their positions, and coupled with Delta hedging by market makers, it is easy to form a dual push of Gamma Squeeze+Put liquidation, further amplifying the upward momentum. The financial aspect is actually very clear From June 19th to 30th, the end of season rebalancing of pension funds brought about a technical selling pressure of approximately $165 billion; The CTA model also tends to sell during the adjustment process. But these are more short-term capital flows, not a deterioration of fundamentals. According to the model calculation, after CTA returns to net buying in the next two weeks, the market will actually receive incremental funding support again. Combined with seasonal factors, the first half of July is already one of the time windows with the highest historical win rate of the year. The fundamentals have not changed either Goldman Sachs predicts that Q2 corporate profits will increase by about 22% year-on-year, AI capital expenditures will remain high, inflation will continue to fall, the situation in the Middle East will ease, and several major risks that the market was previously concerned about have cooled down. In this context, I always believe that this round of AI mainline has not been falsified. Emotional aspect I repeatedly say every day that I am currently in a state of extreme panic at 25. As long as you buy in batches at the bottom during extreme panic, it is not a problem. I have been giving you the path for the second half of the year without changing: July continues to be bullish, driven by the earnings season From August to October, there is a tendency towards high-level fluctuations and periodic adjustments Continue to monitor the year-end market trends from November to December If you haven't followed the batch layout before, there's no need to rush to catch up. I am more inclined to wait for the index to break through the downward trend line with a large volume, then step back to confirm support, and then look for buying points on the right side. The risk return ratio will be more comfortable. Lastly, let me explain why I have always believed that QQ is difficult to fall below 700 The reason is not only fundamental, but also the option structure. At that time, a large number of Put Walls gathered in the 700-705 area, indicating a very concentrated Put holdings in this area. For market makers, this usually forms strong hedging support, and once the index approaches this area, it is easy for buying to take over and slow down the decline. Combined with the upcoming earnings season, strong profit expectations for AI companies, sustained decline in inflation, and easing geopolitical risks, I believe the market is more likely not to directly enter a bear market, but to choose to sort out time and space at high levels. So my judgment has always been that QQ is likely to maintain a high box oscillation around 695-750, with high selling and low buying, rather than a one-sided decline. The final lowest point reached 702, which happened to fall within the support range I had previously judged, indicating that the Put Wall of 700-705 did indeed provide strong support. This is my investment analysis framework, which analyzes the results from multiple dimensions including fundamentals, technology, options, emotions, funds, and news. Everyone should understand, right? If you don't understand, you can ask me in the comment section and I will patiently explain.