Midyear Commodity Outlook - Gaining 2008, 1929 Inklings in 2H - Sock Puppet Risk Broad commodities may have set an enduring high in 1H reminiscent of 2008, with a big difference: energy led the rally 17 years ago. This time it's metals, or was. The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex retreated to about unchanged this year to June 26, after stretching 22% to a January record. Is it a pause that refreshes or an enduring peak? My bias leans to the latter. The 60-day correlation between the metals index and the S&P 500 at about 0.68 is near its highest since the index's 1998 inception and may suggest what matters in 2H. Meanwhile, US stock-market cap-to-GDP at about 2.5x harkens back to 1929. Pump-then-dump patterns that started with Bitcoin and US natural gas in January have been gaining contagion. The big C's -- crude oil and copper -- may be next, especially if stocks drop. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/thdyhdkijh90 {BI COMD} #commodities #bonds #stockmarket @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)