Murphy|Jun 25, 2026 04:48
After each significant market fluctuation, I take a glance at the following four sets of data, which can help me understand the real-time changes in overall market sentiment and behavior.
Figure 1 ⃣: Transfer the profitable chips of LTH to the exchange;
The vast majority of BTC profits across the entire network are in the hands of LTH, so even if the market falls, they can still sell BTC in a profitable state.
The figure indicates the amount of LTH transferred to the exchange for profit redemption during 5 significant declines. From 8826 BTC on May 16, 2026 to 1271 BTC on June 5, 2026;
Overall, there is a trend of gradual reduction. Until yesterday, there were fewer LTHs compared to June 5th, so it can be confirmed that there are still profitable LTHs and there are not many left to sell.
Figure 2 ⃣: LTH's loss chips are transferred to the exchange;
The situation of LTH's loss making and profit making positions is exactly opposite, from 7462 BTC on May 1.21, 2026 to 12212 BTC on June 4, 2026;
Overall, there is a trend of gradual amplification, where each major drop forces out more long-term chips trapped at high levels. Until yesterday, it was significantly lower than June 4th.
Does this mean that the panic market of LTH has already cleared out in the first three downturns? We can observe for a few more days and get a rough idea.
Figure 3 ⃣: STH's profitable chips are transferred to the exchange;
It is almost a normal phenomenon for short-term profit taking to flee during the rebound after each decline. It is a consensus in a bear market to engage in short-term trading and run if you make a profit.
Since early June, STH's profit taking has been continuously decreasing, indicating that the market is becoming weaker and there is almost no room for short-term trading.
Figure 4 ⃣: STH's loss chips are transferred to the exchange;
Short term loss making stocks are the main force in every downturn, and their scale is much larger than the above three sets of data. It is also the most important reference standard for measuring panic emotions.
Among the 4 locations marked in the figure, 2026.25 is the most severe, reaching 31776 BTC. On June 5th, although the price was slightly lower, the scale did not exceed the previous one. Also, yesterday did not exceed June 5th.
Looking at Figure 2 together, there are signs of the panic market gradually clearing.
After reading the above four groups, my overall feeling is that they are "shrinking" in two words. Whether it is profitable or loss making, whether it is LTH or STH, their behavior during the decline is that they want to sell, and what they can sell is getting less and less.
There are no trading opportunities in the short term, and emotions are continuously suppressed and tend to the limit. But in the absence of buying orders, the market doesn't need a lot of chips to smash the market. This is the current reality.
I don't know what you think? Anyway, for me, I should eat, drink, and place orders as planned, without panic or urgency. I pay for my own cognition.
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