Strategy will gradually deteriorate from a 'scaled-up Bitcoin' into a discounted Bitcoin credit fund. Common stock flywheel stalls, long-term stuck in the NAV discount zone; relying on burning USD reserves + rolling refinancing to maintain dividend credibility and get past the near-term debt wall. The company's survival hinges on whether BTC can rise back to the conversion price before the large convertible bonds maturing in 2029–2030—an external variable.