The ideal strategy is not to buy at the exact bottom, but to buy at the "knee." The problem, however, is that you only know where the knee was after the bottom has already formed. What looks like the knee today may later turn out to have been the torso or even the shoulder. Ultimately, this approach is still based on the assumption that "because this is how previous cycles behaved, this cycle will behave the same way." What many people fail to consider is that the probability of those historical assumptions holding true may be much lower this time. That, in my view, is the biggest risk. At the previous market top, the dominant consensus supported by various on-chain metrics and technical indicators was that Bitcoin would continue higher. Based on that outlook, countless investment strategies and market scenarios were built. But reality unfolded very differently. That is why I believe we must remain open to two possibilities today - The market may find its bottom much sooner than expected. - Or it may decline far deeper than most people currently anticipate. Objectively speaking, the probability of the market quickly transitioning into a sustained uptrend from here does not appear particularly high. Yet, interestingly, many participants seem to dismiss the possibility of a much deeper decline as unrealistic. I believe every scenario should remain on the table. Many investors seem comfortable taking an aggressive approach simply because they believe the market will eventually recover anyway. However, even during the short-term rebound in April and May, the market created an atmosphere that looked almost identical to the beginning of a new bull trend only to reverse and move lower once again. This raises an important question: Should we really assume that this cycle will continue to move within the range that has historically been considered "predictable"? This is not merely speculation. We have already witnessed traditional data interpretations fail near the previous market top. More importantly, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, both market structure and trading behavior have changed significantly. For example, in the past, 100 orders were typically processed through 100 separate transactions. Today, it has become increasingly common for those same 100 orders to be consolidated into a single transaction. "This structural shift has now persisted for nearly two years." At this point, I believe it is entirely reasonable to assume that the data itself has evolved and that the frameworks we have historically relied upon to interpret that data may also need to change. I understand that this perspective may be uncomfortable for some. However, from where I stand, the market still seems determined to interpret every development as if it falls within a familiar and predictable framework. Even if prices decline much further from here, many people will likely continue describing it as nothing more than a "normal" correction. I believe it is still far too early to make that conclusion. That is why I don't think we should confidently declare that we've found the bottom or assume we've reached the "knee" at this stage.(mignolet)