Many people are asking why the US stock market is not falling, but gold, silver, Bitcoin, and even US Treasury bonds are falling today?? Firstly, the US stock market has also experienced a decline, although it is not as significant. However, I am still concerned about Micron's financial report, although today's focus is not on the US stock market. Since tonight, the market has been worried that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times before March 2027, so they are worried about taking some safe haven actions, with gold and silver being among them. Firstly, due to the expectation of interest rate hikes, the DXY, also known as the US dollar index, began to rise, giving the US dollar an advantage in interest rates. Therefore, when the expectation of a stronger US dollar arises, some investors may sell off their already rising gold and silver and turn to buying bonds in search of more stable returns. So today in the bond market, it can be clearly seen that yields are decreasing. This is because a large number of investors are buying bonds, and the reason for buying is that they are worried that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which will lead to a decline in the risk market. Therefore, bonds with almost no risk and higher yields are the best "safe haven". So selling gold, silver, and even Bitcoin is essentially a concern about interest rate hikes, and buying US Treasury bonds is also a concern about interest rate hikes. So the complicated part is here, many friends should say, isn't it the end of the conflict between the United States and Iran that WTI prices have temporarily fallen below $70? Why do some people believe that the Federal Reserve not only raises interest rates, but also has such hawkish (three times) expectations of rate hikes. Because even though Iran has already opened the Strait of Hormuz, it will take some time for the falling oil prices to be transmitted to goods and services, not to mention that it will take several months for the Strait of Hormuz to fully open. Therefore, many investors are still concerned that rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, even if oil prices have already fallen. So the key question is, will today's decline be the beginning of a continuous collapse? I only represent my personal opinion here, and my viewpoint may not necessarily be correct. If today's decline, as analyzed by everyone, is due to market concerns about the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, then the catalyst for this concern may be the core PCE data to be released tomorrow. So I also believe that today's decline is a safe haven for tomorrow's core PCE. As we all know, the data that the Federal Reserve attaches the most importance to is the core PCE. Although there is no energy in the core PCE, the transmission of energy is multifaceted. Therefore, from market expectations, the annual rate of the core PCE has risen from 3.3% to 3.4%, and the monthly rate has risen from 0.5% to 0.6%, which means that the market expects core inflation to rise. Not to mention the broad PCE expectation has reached 4.1%, so the most direct concern for the market is that rising inflation will make the Federal Reserve more hawkish. Even if the Fed does not raise interest rates, hawkish statements and intimidation of the market are possible. So the current key trends are two: One possibility is that if tomorrow's core PCE is expected or lower than expected, the market will be reassured about inflation. After all, the war has stopped and oil prices are approaching recovery, so there is a high probability that the market will rebound. The market expects the Federal Reserve to be less hawkish. The other is that tomorrow's core PCE is higher than expected, and the higher the market's risk aversion, the greater the probability that the market believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. To put it simply, if the core PCE data is too high tomorrow, there may be a possibility of further decline. Although it has not yet happened, I believe that raising interest rates is not currently an option for the Federal Reserve, especially since the war between the United States and Iran has ended, and oil prices have only risen by $5 from their pre war average. The average oil price in 2025 is around $70, so even with current oil prices, it will not continue to stimulate inflation in the United States or even globally. The main concern of the market is the expectation of Bank of America, but I don't think this expectation is necessarily going to happen. Even if we look at the dot matrix in June, we can see that there are indeed nine Federal Reserve officials who may choose to raise interest rates, but there are still eight Federal Reserve officials who choose to stay put, and one Federal Reserve official who chooses to cut interest rates. We won't talk about the interest rate cut, which means that even within the Federal Reserve, there is no iron sheet. If we include Walsh in the interest rate hike, it doesn't have an advantage. Moreover, this is because the war between the United States and Iran has not completely ended, and the agreements have already been signed, and oil prices have also dropped. So I may be certain that even now there will still be fewer Federal Reserve officials who choose to raise interest rates, which means that the possibility of a rate hike is still very low, at least in the current situation. So if my assumption is correct, then the decline of Bitcoin is likely driven by emotions. As long as the expectation of interest rate hikes decreases, the possibility of a rebound in Bitcoin: native will increase. Unfortunately, what can reduce the probability of interest rate hikes now, apart from the core PCE data to be released tomorrow, may depend on whether Federal Reserve officials will come out to appease the market. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout