The Powell fed projected falling real Fed Funds in 2026 and 2027 which, as inflation rose in H1 2026, presented a passive easing bias for markets. The Warsh Fed changed this for 2027 and beyond by showing *higher* real rates, which is a removal of accommodation. However their hawkishness is tempered as 2026 real rates are still expected to fall. This shift is what the market has been pricing in. Oil prices falling will probably alter the market's calculus further by introducing disinflation.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)